Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas was cautious about the likelihood of spot Ethereum ETF approval, estimating the chances at a pessimistic 25%.

“The lack of engagement seems to be purposeful vs procrastination. No positive signs/intel anywhere you look,” Balchunas said on X, pointing out the SEC’s apparent strategic non-engagement.

Re Eth ETF approval, we are holding the line at 25% odds altho tbh it is a very pessimistic 25%. The lack of engagement seems to be purposeful vs procrastination. No positive signs/intel anywhere you look. Personally hope they do approve it but it just ain't looking good. https://t.co/nuBdCDE18L

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 25, 2024

The debate extends beyond mere speculation, with industry stakeholders offering insights into the SEC’s process. Craig Salm, Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, offered a contrasting perspective on the same social media platform. Salm suggested that the SEC’s silence might not inherently signal disapproval and noted that the groundwork laid during the approval process for a spot Bitcoin ETF could influence the current situation.

“In the final months leading up to Bitcoin ETF approval, Grayscale and others received positive and constructive engagement from the SEC,” Salm said.

The Grayscale representative emphasized that the core issues addressed for Bitcoin ETFs, such as creation/redemption procedures and custody concerns, apply equally to Ether, suggesting a baseline of engagement has already been established.

During discussions on the topic, there was an undercurrent of concern regarding the SEC’s stance on Ether classification. Reports indicate the regulator has issued subpoenas to crypto firms on interactions with the Ethereum Foundation, hinting at a possible intention to classify Ether as a security.

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, views these developments as making the approval of spot Ether ETFs soon “extremely unlikely.”