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As the second quarter of 2024 begins, Ethereum (ETH) investors are looking to history for clues about the potential performance of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value. Ethereum's price history reveals a pattern of robust Q2 gains, with an average increase of 67.19%.

Crypto analyst Ali shared a screenshot of Ethereum's quarterly returns; ETH saw massive gains of 453% and 102.25% in Q2 of 2017 and 2019, respectively. Gains for the second quarter averaged 67.19%, with a median of 15.29%.

This positive trend has been consistent enough to catch the eye of investors who see Q2 as a period of opportunity for Ethereum, with many anticipating another season of strong returns.

However, the potential denial of a spot Ethereum ETF, which might cause significant price volatility, casts a shadow over this optimistic outlook.

An Ethereum ETF would provide a regulated investment platform for institutional and individual investors, thereby increasing demand and driving up ETH prices. Several issuers, including VanEck and Fidelity, have sought approval to launch them.

However, approval for such an ETF is far from guaranteed. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts believe there is only a 25% likelihood of approval.

The Securities and Exchange Commission previously postponed a decision on a spot exchange-traded fund, but it must make one by May 23, which is one of the applicants' final deadlines.

On May 23, the SEC will decide whether to approve or refuse VanEck's application. If they decline the request, issuers who still want to be approved will have to refile applications, or they can challenge the regulator's decision through litigation.

Seven issuers are proposing to launch a spot Ethereum ETF fund: BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco with Galaxy, Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares with Ark and Hashdex.

At the time of writing, ETH was down 1.59% in the last 24 hours, at $3,558. Ethereum temporarily rose above $3,600 over the weekend after falling as much as 25% between March 11 and 19. According to Santiment, the number of ETH addresses holding coins has reached highs of 118,230, with midterm MVRV suggesting a mild bullish signal.