According to a recent Bernstein report, the approval of a spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US may establish a precedent for classifying Solana (SOL) as a commodity.
The classification of cryptocurrencies as either securities or commodities holds significant implications. Commodity classification facilitates ETF applications and approvals, while security classification subjects assets to stricter SEC oversight.
‘Big three’
The approval of spot Ethereum ETFs would mean the SEC views the second-largest crypto as a commodity, setting a critical precedent. This would mark the first time a non-Bitcoin digital asset receives such a classification, raising expectations for Solana to follow suit.
Ether’s price increased earlier this week after Bloomberg analysts raised the likelihood of SEC approval for spot Ether ETFs to 75% from 25%, following reports that the regulator requested updates to filings. The SEC’s final decisions on these applications are expected later today, on May 23, following multiple delays.
Bernstein’s report noted that Bitcoin’s 75% rally following the approval of spot ETFs suggests similar price action for Ethereum after approval of spot ETFs.
However, if the SEC rejects the applications, Ethereum could experience significant volatility and a steep price correction in the coming days, according to CryptoQuant research.
Crypto investor Brian Kelly expressed similar optimistic views about Solana and the potential regulatory approval of Ethereum ETF products during a recent CNBC interview. He speculated that SOL could be the next altcoin to receive ETF approval, highlighting it as a likely candidate for investment managers to push forward.
Kelly emphasized that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are the “big three” digital assets that might see ETF products approved in this cycle. He noted the success of Bitcoin ETFs, which have collectively amassed a significant amount of Bitcoin, valued at around $58 billion, indicating strong demand for regulated crypto investment products.
However, Kelly also acknowledged some skepticism within the Solana community. He mentioned that Solana’s initial coin offering (ICO) and its classification as a security by the SEC could pose challenges for ETF approval.
Despite this, Kelly remained optimistic that the shifting regulatory and political landscape might increase the chances of Solana ETF approval if Ethereum ETFs receive the green light.
Shifting political landscape
The Bernstein report, released ahead of the SEC’s final decisions on ETH ETF applications, also highlighted a potential shift in the Biden administration’s stance on cryptocurrencies based on recent developments.
Additionally, the report noted that if Trump is reelected, his adminitration is likely to further support the crypto industry through legislative and regulatory measures. According to the report:
“Should Trump get elected, crypto could see significant legislative and agency support, leading to long-lasting structural changes in crypto financial integration.”
The potential approval of Solana ETFs comes amid a changing regulatory environment and growing bipartisan support for crypto. The recent passage of the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century (FIT21) Act by the House, with significant Democratic backing, indicates a potential political shift.
Lawyer Jake Chervinsky described the bill’s passage as a “vote of no confidence” in the SEC’s current approach to crypto regulation, suggesting political consequences for maintaining an anti-crypto stance.
Regulatory approval of Solana ETFs would mark a significant milestone for the crypto industry, signaling mainstream acceptance and integration. However, with Ether ETFs still awaiting approval, the industry remains cautiously optimistic about the future.