Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has backtracked on a resolution provided by its oracle service UMA regarding a betting market on whether Barron Trump, son of former U.S. President Donald Trump, was involved in a meme coin called DJT.
The controversy has been growing for days since UMA resolved a market query about whether Barron Trump was, in fact, linked to a meme coin named TrumpCoin with the ticker DJT.
UMA has repeatedly concluded that the answer was “no,” but holders of “yes” shares objected.
On June 26, Polymarket asserted that UMA had made an incorrect resolution and promised to announce a fix soon. The following day, it posted that “it is conclusive that he was, in fact, involved in some way” with DJT.
The prediction market also mentioned that, besides issuing refunds to those who bet on the “yes” outcome, it is actively working to enhance its oracle and resolution process.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) June 28, 2024Update:
For the market “Was Barron Trump involved in $DJT?” UMA, the third party oracle, resolved it to “No”. It is conclusive that he was, in fact, involved in some way. As Polymarket starts to reach critical mass, our price based forecasts are becoming an indispensable source…
Polymarket’s sudden move is the latest twist in the two-week-old drama of DJT, a Trump-themed meme coin in which neither the Trump campaign nor Barron has admitted or denied involvement.
According to the contract on Polymarket, the market would resolve to “Yes” if there was substantial evidence that Barron Trump was involved in the creation of the Solana token $DJT. If not, it would resolve to “No.”
Bettors had wagered over $1 million on this market, as noted on Polymarket’s page. UMA’s optimistic oracle operates by recording verifiable truth or data for smart contracts, with dispute resolutions being decided through votes by token holders.
The situation around the DJT token has been developing since the Solana-based meme coin gained viral attention last week. The Donald Trump campaign has not yet responded to questions about involvement in the project.
Meanwhile, controversial entrepreneur Martin Shkreli has claimed to co-create DJT, as revealed by blockchain investigator ZachXBT.
Blockchain analytics platform Arkham awarded a $150,000 bounty to ZachXBT for revealing that Shkreli was behind the DJT token.
At the time of publication, the DJT token’s price had dropped by 38% over the last three days, per data from CoinMarketCap.
Earlier, betting on U.S. elections led to a surge in activity on Polymarket, with over $170 million wagered on election-related events. Former President Donald Trump even shared Polymarket’s estimates on the likelihood of his return to the White House.
In early 2022, Polymarket faced a $1.4 million fine from the CFTC for conducting over-the-counter binary options trading without proper registration. Polymarket’s cooperation with the regulator resulted in a reduced fine, and the project confirmed the issue was successfully settled.