US stock futures retreated on Tuesday as investors cautiously weighed the rate-cut odds ahead of crucial jobs data and eyed what higher chances of a Trump win could mean for markets.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) and S&P 500 futures (ES=F) both fell roughly 0.4%, after the gauges eked out small closing gains to kick off the third quarter. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) led the way lower, down about 0.5%.

Stocks are faltering as the market plays safe in a trading week dominated by Friday's crucial June jobs report and shortened for the July 4 holiday. Doubts are creeping in that stocks can carry their first-half rally into the end of the year, putting investors on watch for signs of economic strength that could sap momentum.

Jerome Powell is due to speak at an ECB meeting on Tuesday, and investors will listen closely for the Federal Reserve chair's view of progress on inflation and the state of the labor market. Also on deck is a reading on weekly job openings, which will similarly feed into expectations for interest-rate cuts.

Meanwhile, political risk is preying on minds, as Wall Street assesses what a Trump election win could mean for markets as speculation grows that Biden could bow out of the presidential race. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) nudged lower on Tuesday after jumping the previous day amid that debate.

On the corporate front, Tesla (TSLA) shipments of China-made EVs dropped 24% in June amid a fierce price war. Its shares dipped over 1% in pre-market trading on the heels of a 6% closing gain as the market waited for data on the car maker's second-quarter production and deliveries.