• BTC has remained below $60K for over a week. 
• Glassnode founders suggested that US CPI data could set the next direction. 

Bitcoin [BTC] has remained below $60K for a week and was down 7% in Q3 as of press time. The downward pressure has mainly come from the government and Mt. Gox sell-offs, which offered bears market leverage. 

However, per a market observer, Bitcoin bears’ days could be numbered, as key sell pressure from the German government could ease soon. 

‘Bears, you better hope for a very high % of Gox sellers to soon join you in force otherwise, your days look numbered right now’ 

The pseudonymous analyst cited several bullish catalysts for BTC, including surging global liquidity and possible absorption of the remaining German government BTC holding by next week. 

‘German gov only started selling ~$3bn of $BTC < 3 wks ago, > 50% already sold + likely concludes in a week or so at current pace.’

According to Arkham Intelligence data, the German government sent over $60 million worth of BTC to centralized exchanges on Thursday, bringing their BTC balance to 13.1K coins, or about $767 million.

Bitcoin could also benefit from the FTX payout, which was estimated to be around $16 billion and to be paid in cash at the end of Q3 2024. According to the analyst, this could add more liquidity for BTC and the overall market. 

Another analyst, Miles Deutscher, supported the above position, including a Trump win, and summarized the catalysts as a ‘massive opportunity’ for long set-ups. 

However, another market observer, MartyParty, doubted Trump’s win impact, given the recent push for CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) to oversee spot BTC markets. 

‘If the CFTC is granted this expansion of authority, it would mean that they are likely going to require any Bitcoin company to register with the federal government and have enhanced KYC/AML requirements. This won’t only affect exchanges, but any company that touches spot Bitcoin.’ 

What’s next for Bitcoin price?

In the meantime, BTC has been flirting with the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) but was yet to flip it into support. The weak market structure was further confirmed by below-average readings from the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and CMF (Chaikin Money Flow). 

However, the next BTC price direction could be determined after the June US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, scheduled for 11 July. 

A slower inflation print could confirm the deflationary trend and tip the Fed to consider rate cuts and possibly set BTC to mount the 200-day SMA. 

But a hotter-than-expected inflation could give bears more leverage to send BTC lower. Interestingly, Glassnode founders, reiterated the above stance and viewed the CPI data as likely to set the next direction for BTC price.