Trump's Re-election Momentum Fuels Cryptocurrency: ETFs in Focus

07/17/2024 05:01

Trump, a cryptocurrency advocate, looks likely to win the Presidential elections, increasing the probability of the digital asset surging. Look at cryptocurrency ETFs to capitalize.

Despite recent volatility, the outlook for cryptocurrencies remains optimistic. Bitcoin prices surged about 9% since the assassination attempt on Donald Trump that left him injured. Trump, who has been a cryptocurrency advocate, looks likely to resume office for a second term as the President of the United States after the incident.

Along with the rising probability of the Fed cutting interest rates later this year and spot Ether ETF approval, this scenario creates opportunities in digital currencies.

What Trump's Election Win Means for Cryptocurrency?

According to Polymarket, as quoted on Forbes, the assassination attempt saw Trump’s chance of winning the presidential elections surge to 70%, while President Biden’s re-election odds dropped to 16%.

Donald Trump, who has started to accept donations for his campaign in cryptocurrency, has positioned himself as crypto-friendly, criticizing the Democrats' efforts to regulate the crypto sector on many occasions. Trump, who is set to address the Bitcoin 2024 conference in late July, is also acting as a tailwind for the crypt market.

Per Yahoo Finance, Trump’s meeting with Bitcoin miners in June and his stance on ensuring that all remaining Bitcoins are mined in the United States projects his possible electoral victory as a major catalyst for the volatile cryptocurrency market.

Trump’s second tenure as President, promises not only a potential surge in digital asset prices but also paves the way for clearer regulations and wider acceptability.

Rate Cut by Fed to Boost Prices

The rising probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates from September, this year, coupled with de-dollarization, tends to create more opportunities in digital currencies. Investors may view Bitcoin as an alternative to the depreciating dollar, which moves inversely with interest rate adjustments by the Fed.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the Fed may begin reducing interest rates from September, this year, with an 89.9% probability that they will decrease to 5-5.25%. The likelihood of a further fall in interest rates becomes more prominent toward December, with the rates potentially dropping to 4.75-5%, supported by a likelihood of 38.7%. Interest rates may witness a further drop, falling to 4.5-4.75%, with a 52.6% likelihood supporting this estimate.

Moreover, any Fed rate cut would boost risk-on sentiments, which, in turn, would help cryptocurrency prices.

Other Factors Boosting the Cryptocurrency Market

With the launch date being postponed to mid or even late July, the approval for spot Ether ETFs marks a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency landscape, poised to impact both the broader market and specifically Ethereum (Read: Time to Buy Ether ETFs on Approval Rally Hopes?)

Favorable changes in the demand-supply dynamics of the digital currency also increase the likelihood of the asset’s prices surging. With the supply of the cryptocurrency curbed by 50% since its halving in the month of April, we might see increased inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs in the coming months. Historical trends further support a favorable outlook for the crypto market (Read: Is a $500K Bitcoin Rally Possible? Crypto ETFs to Consider).

ETFs to Consider

Below, we mention a few ETFs for investors to increase their portfolio’s exposure to the digital currencies and capitalize on their long-term bullish trend.

We can gauge the potential impact of a Trump election victory on digital asset prices by examining the performance of the following funds during pre-market hours following the assassination attempt on Trump last Saturday.

IShares Bitcoin Trust Registered (IBIT) has gained 8.28% during pre-market hours as on Jun 15.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has gained 8.37% during pre-market hours as on Jun 15.

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) has gained 8.49% during pre-market hours as on Jun 15.

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) has gained 8.56% during pre-market hours on Jun 15.

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust (BITB) has gained 8.31% during pre-market hours on Jun 15.

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