In light of the shooting, prediction markets have swung in Trump’s favor. For instance, since Saturday, Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, has increased its forecast to 70%. Similarly, PredictIt has boosted the former president’s odds to 67%. Research suggests that prediction markets, where traders buy shares in the outcome they deem most likely, may be a “better forecaster” of political outcomes, on average. Meanwhile, on betting site BetOnline, Trump’s odds stand at -300 to win back the White House, equating to a 75% probability. 

Markets react

Evidence of the crypto market’s growing consensus that Trump will emerge victorious, can be seen far beyond Bitcoin.

In the stock market, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp reflected growing confidence in the company’s majority-owner becoming president. Between Friday and Monday, the stock price jumped 48%. Crypto-related stocks are also up since markets closed on Friday: Coinbase Global Inc. by 13%, Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. by 20%, and MicroStrategy Inc. by 12%, to name but a few. 

Trump-themed meme coins are also rallying. Memecoins can be seen as a countercultural corner of crypto; the playful, volatile coins are flocked to by online communities during viral moments. Super Trump ($STRUMP) is trending, ranking third for most-searched cryptocurrency on CoinGecko. The token has soared 38% over the past week, and the MAGA coin ($TRUMP) is also up 15%. The popularity of Trump-themed coins can, similar to prediction markets, serve as a signal for political outcomes.

Meanwhile, Trump Digital Trading Cards, an NFT collection, have spiked in popularity. The floor price—or the cheapest listed—of the Polygon-based tokens doubled from $230 in the moments before the shooting, to $518 just hours after, data from NFT marketplace Magic Eden shows. The floor price is currently around $423.

The ‘crypto president’?

On a broader level, Bitcoin has been rebounding in response to the crypto market anticipating a Republican administration expected to favor digital assets. Trump has pitched himself the “crypto president,” and is set to headline Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville next week, the industry’s largest conference with over 30,000 attendees. Moreover, this week he appointed JD Vance as his crypto-friendly running mate. 

According to his Senate financial disclosure last year, Vance owned between $100,000 and $250,000 in Bitcoin on the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. At current market prices, that’s somewhere between $136,000 and $390,000. Furthermore, Politico reported last month that Vance was circulating draft legislation that would revamp how the U.S. regulates digital assets. His plan would overhaul how the SEC and the CFTC police the crypto market, and make the current policy more industry-friendly.