Crypto bets heat up: gamblers wager on Olympics and Taylor Swift’s engagement odds

07/29/2024 22:52
Crypto bets heat up: gamblers wager on Olympics and Taylor Swift’s engagement odds

Crypto prediction markets have exploded in popularity amid this year’s presidential contest and other high-stakes events.

Popular crypto gambling site Polymarket has emerged as a top destination for wagers on the 2024 Paris Olympics, with bettors pouring millions into questions like “Who will win the most medals at Paris Olympics?” and “Who will win the most gold?”

The Olympics category is new, giving crypto gamblers an opportunity to place their bets on which countries might emerge victorious in men’s basketball, men’s tennis, women’s soccer, and women’s basketball, among other athletic contests.

Bettors are staking money on which countries will collect medals for various sports and even on the specific performance of athletes like American swimmer Katie Ledecky. The majority of crypto gamblers – nearly 80% at the time of writing – believe that Ledecky is on track to win two gold medals. The price to partake in the bet? A couple of cents to vote yes, and up to a dollar to vote no on the possibility.

So far, millions of dollars in digital assets have been poured into the gambling platform to voice a prediction on the Paris Olympics. Polymarket runs on both the Ethereum and Polygon blockchain. This year alone, over $400 million in bets have been placed on Polymarket, and bet volumes are only poised to increase.

In fact, Polymarket witnessed an explosive growth in bet volumes surrounding the 2024 November presidential contest. For a few weeks, crypto bettors were placing predictions on the probability of President Joe Biden withdrawing from the upcoming race. On Polymarket, the contest on that line of inquiry opened as early as Sept. 21, 2023, when few expected the possibility of Biden conceding his exit to materialize. However, after a subpar debate performance and an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, the odds snowballed dramatically, and Polymarket saw a precipitous uptick in wagers.

While election polls are notoriously inaccurate, the prediction market – at least in this one case – had success in forecasting Biden’s eventual exit from the 2024 presidential contest. In fact, prediction markets sometimes outperform opinion polls and expert opinions, and enjoy comparative accuracy due to the fact that gamblers have a financial stake in seeking out the most accurate information, some say.

For the Olympics, more than $1.8 million bets have been placed on forecasting which nation will secure the highest number of medals. At the top, over a quarter million in crypto sits behind the U.S., followed by China, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France. The line-up for gold is not too different, with more than $239,000 in crypto bets placed on the U.S., over $259,000 on China, and more than $300,000 on Japan.

Other Polymarket predictions have concerned lower-stakes questions, such as how many tweets Elon Musk posts on a given week, and the possibility of footballer Travis Kelce proposing to billionaire songstress Taylor Swift this year. The latter question has until December 31, 2024 before the prediction market automatically resolves the answer to “no.”

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