Telegram-based project Toncoin (TON) has emerged as one of the breakout blockchains of this cycle. This success is driven not only by the token’s price performance but also by the significant level of adoption it has achieved.

However, despite Toncoin’s many achievements, the blockchain faces challenges that could impact its price.

A Double-Edged Sword Appears on Toncoin

One area where the project has excelled is active wallets. According to TON Stat, the number of monthly active wallets has surpassed four million, driven by over 500,000 new accounts joining the network since the start of August.

The 30-day active wallets metric tracks the number of wallets involved in at least one successful transaction. For Toncoin, this growth is largely attributed to active participation in tap-to-earn platforms on the chain.

For instance, projects like Tapswap and Hamster Kombat continue to register a good level of user adoption. Alternatives, including Catizen and Blum, have also played major roles in helping Toncoin hit this milestone.

Read More: What Are Telegram Bot Coins?

Despite the surge in traction, TON has struggled to maintain a strong number of daily transactions. Typically, an increase in transaction value boosts the network’s share of fees and revenue.

Moreover, higher transaction volumes can support the token’s recovery, especially if a significant portion involves buying the native token. On August 8, TON’s total transaction volume reached $11 million. However, at press time, this figure had dropped nearly threefold to $3.2 million.

This decline suggests waning interest in the cryptocurrency. If this trend continues or worsens, TON’s price could be similarly impacted.

TON Price Prediction: $6 Is Key

Toncoin trades at $6.44, and it attained this point after Binance listed the cryptocurrency. According to the daily chart, TON  is on the verge of wiping out the losses it had between August 1 and 5.

However, the Aroon indicator suggests that this uptick may stall soon. The Aroon indicator, which measures the strength of a trend, consists of two lines: Aroon Up (orange) and Aroon Down (blue).

At press time, the Aroon Down line has a higher value than the Aroon Up, indicating that TON’s upswing may soon be neutralized. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which measures momentum, is currently negative.

The MACD’s position implies that the momentum surrounding the token is largely bearish. If this trend continues, it could lead to a price decline.

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If this is the case, the price of TON may drop to $6.04. However, sustained buying pressure from bulls could push the price higher, potentially reaching $6.91.