Could crypto holders influence the result of this year’s U.S. presidential election? According to Paradigm, a prominent crypto venture capital firm, fresh polling data suggests yes.

In a report released by Paradigm Monday, the company stated that “making inroads with crypto owners” could boost Vice President Kamala Harris’ victory odds come November. Specifically looking at Democrats, the company found that plenty of “crypto voters are up for grabs.” 

Former President and current Republican candidate Donald Trump has appealed to crypto owners on the campaign trail for months, vowing to defend the industry while accepting digital assets as donations. For Harris’ newly minted presidential campaign, the issue of crypto policy remains an open question.

Under Joe Biden’s current administration, the crypto industry has weathered a string of enforcement actions, as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) points to widespread noncompliance. Trump has promised to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in the White House if reelected, ending what he’s described as an “anti-crypto crusade.”

With razor-thin margins shaping up in key battleground states, Paradigm’s survey of 804 registered Democratic voters found that crypto is a ballot box factor. Some 21% of Democrats who don’t favor Harris felt that the Biden Administration has been “too hostile” to crypto, Paradigm’s poll found.

Paradigm said that Democrats were surveyed between July 25 and August 1—days after President Joe Biden stepped aside from the 2024 presidential race. Ultimately, the report found that 1-2% of Dems could vote for Trump “due [to] the Biden Administration’s hostility to crypto.”

When viewed alongside polling data released last month from Paradigm on Republicans, the surveys show that crypto owners are more likely to be Republicans. Around 17% of Republicans currently own crypto, the poll found, while Monday’s results indicated 12% of Dems own crypto.

The margin of error for both polls is 3.5%. And Republicans were surveyed between June 11-13, a period that began a day after Trump labeled himself a “crypto president.”

The Republican-focused poll was conducted by Echelon Insights, while the one focused on Democrats was conducted by Mercury Analytics. The former poll surveyed 1,025 likely voters who identified as Republican.

Overall, Democrats and Republicans both felt that the government should have a limited view into American’s personal financial transactions. When surveying Republicans, 94% of those polled felt that “financial transactions should remain private,” Paradigm found.

While the question was framed somewhat differently for Democrats, a similar sentiment existed. Among Democrats, 72% of respondents felt that personal financial transactions should “generally be kept private” and made available to agencies only when needed for specific purposes.

Edited by Andrew Hayward