Stock market today: Tech stocks lead rally after inflation data sets table for CPI
08/14/2024 03:14
Investors are anxious for several economic datapoints this week, starting with inflation.
US stocks closed in a sea of green Tuesday as Wall Street digested cooler-than-expected inflation data and awaited an update on consumer prices, with the July CPI report due Wednesday morning.
Tech stocks led the day's rally with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surging about 2.4% while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged up roughly 1%.
It's the best five-day stretch since November for the Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F), and S&P 500, with each notching four straight wins.
US producer prices, often a signal for where consumer prices are heading, rose just 0.1% month-over-month in July, lower than economist forecasts. Year-over-year, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.2%, nearly in line with the Federal Reserve's 2% target for inflation.
The PPI release serves as an appetizer for Wednesday's reading on consumer prices. July's retail sales reading, a key indicator of the health of the US consumer, is set to follow on Thursday.
Home Depot (HD) was the most significant name on the earnings docket Tuesday. The home-improvement retailer's shares fell after it cut its outlook on comparable same-store sales for the rest of the year.
In other individual movers, Starbucks (SBUX) stock closed up 24% after a shock announcement that it was replacing its CEO with Chipotle chief Brian Niccol. Chipotle (CMG) shares tumbled more than 7%.
Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) gained roughly 7%, building on a 4% gain on Monday as analysts at Bank of America named it a top "rebound" stock.
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Stocks close in sea of green
US stocks ripped higher Tuesday as Wall Street digested cooler-than-expected inflation data ahead of the July CPI report, due Wednesday morning.
Tech stocks led the day's rally with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surging about 2.4% while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged up roughly 1%.
It's the best five-day stretch since November for the Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F), and S&P 500, with each notching four straight wins.
Paramount Global to shutter TV studio in cost-cutting frenzy
Paramount Global (PARA) announced in a memo to staff Tuesday it would be shutting down its storied TV studio by the end of the week — the latest move in a series of aggressive cost cuts the company is taking ahead of its expected merger with Skydance Media.
"Paramount Global has made the difficult decision to close Paramount Television Studios as part of the company's broader restructuring plans," Paramount TV Studios president Nicole Clemens wrote. "This has been a challenging and transformative time for the entire industry, and sadly, our studio is not immune."
Paramount's TV studio has produced top series like Netflix's "Thirteen Reasons Why," Amazon's "Reacher" and Apple's "Defending Jacob." The stock traded flat on the heels of the news.
Clemens will be exiting the company as a result of the shutdown. All current series and development projects will transition to CBS Studios, the company said.
"To be clear, this is not a decision based on how PTVS performed," Paramount co-CEO George Cheeks wrote in a follow-up memo to staff. "This move is the result of significant changes in the TV and streaming marketplace and the need to streamline our company."
Last week, Paramount reported a sharper slowdown than expected in its linear TV business as the company took a nearly $6 billion write-down on the value of its cable unit. At the same time, the media giant announced plans to lay off 15% of its US workforce after eliminating about 800 positions in February.
According to a separate internal memo from the company's CEO trio, the layoffs kicked off on Tuesday and will continue in three phases through the end of the year.
"We expect 90% of these actions to be complete by the end of September," Paramount co-CEOs George Cheeks, Brian Robbins, and Chris McCarthy wrote to staff.
The developments come as the entertainment giant preps its balance sheet for an eventual Skydance takeover, set to be completed in the third quarter of 2025.
Inside the chaos at Starbucks amid CEO shakeup
It was a shocking announcement this morning from Starbucks early Tuesday after the ailing coffee chain announced Chipotle (CMG) chairman and CEO Brian Niccol will become its next CEO, effective Sept. 9.
Niccol will assume the position from Lax Narasimhan, who was on the job for less than 18 months.
Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi has the inside scoop:
Starbucks is currently an icon in crisis. Don't believe me? Let's review the facts.
First, the company's financial results and share price have been dreadful.
Its most recent quarter showed a 6% drop in North America transactions as consumers shunned the chain's ever-pricier coffees and long wait times.
International sales tanked 7%. Chinese comparable sales plunged 14%, spurring execs to say on the earnings call it's exploring strategic options for the business. Non-GAAP operating profits declined to 16.7% from 17.4%.
The company's prior quarter wasn't too hot, either.
Starbucks shares were down 20% over the past five years before the pop today. The S&P 500 is up 85%. Chipotle is up 201%.
"Fixable, but it will take time," a Starbucks insider with knowledge of the company's many troubles recently told me.
Then there is bumbling, chaotic leadership in the C-suite.
Howard Schultz — the meddling billionaire founder of Starbucks turned failed presidential candidate — not so covertly ripped his hand-picked successor Narasimhan in a LinkedIn post a couple of months ago, all but undermining his authority.
Narasimhan then got embarrassed on live TV in an expert interview by my former boss at TheStreet, Jim Cramer.
Restaurant CEOs I have talked to privately since still can't believe how terrible and ill-prepared Narasimhan appeared to be in the interview — a few quipped he may not be around deep into 2025. They were proven right!
One Wall Street analyst told me the TV performance should have been expected, given Narasimhan is basically a consultant masquerading as a food retailer CEO (he spent 19 years at McKinsey).
And last but not least, Starbucks is still dealing with eroding trust among its stores' rank and file, which has led to moves to unionize.
In Niccol, Starbucks is getting someone who could stomp out all of these crises over time. Chipotle shares have skyrocketed 671% since Niccol started as CEO, per Yahoo Finance data, compared to 100% for the S&P 500 and 81% for McDonald's (MCD).
The crisis at Starbucks begins to end today. It won't be easy for Niccol, but at least he will enter with the resume and mindset "Lax" never had. That's a win and then some.
Technology leads gains
Technology led the day's session on Tuesday, with the sector up nearly 3% after new data signaled cooling inflation ahead of a critical CPI report.
Consumer discretionary and the communication services sectors rounded out the top three while energy was the largest laggard of the day.
(Source: Yahoo Finance) Here comes the CPI report...
Tuesday's PPI data serves as the latest to build the case for Fed rate cuts. It will also set up one of the most important data points shaping future Federal Reserve interest rate policy: July's Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The inflation report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, is expected to show headline inflation of 3.0%, unchanged from June's reading.
Over the prior month, consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.2%, an uptick from the prior month's 0.1% decline as energy prices are largely expected to pick up again.
On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in July are expected to have risen 3.2% over last year, a slowdown from the 3.3% annual increase seen in June. Monthly core prices, however, are expected to rise 0.2% compared to 0.1% increase in June, according to Bloomberg data.
File - A shopper peruses cheese offerings at a Target store on Oct. 4, 2023, in Sheridan, Colo. Inflation is easing slightly, but grocery prices are still high. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS) "CPI in June surprised to the downside," Bank of America economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note ahead of the report. "We expect some of that surprise to reverse in July."
To note, June's data was the first time since May 2020 that monthly headline CPI came in negative. It was also the slowest annual gain in prices since March 2021.
While July's inflation data will likely not be "quite as low as June, it is in line with prior trend in deflation and should meet the Fed's benchmark for beginning rate cuts in September," Gapen said.
Core inflation has remained stubbornly elevated due to higher costs of shelter and core services like insurance and medical care.
Shelter prices are expected to reverse June's deceleration after the index for rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) posted their smallest monthly increases since August 2021. Owners' equivalent rent is the hypothetical rent a homeowner would pay for the same property.
Non-housing services also edged down in June, "owing in large part to a plunge in airfares. For July, however, we expect the decline in airfares to be much more moderate," Bank of America's Gapen noted.
"Non-housing services inflation should moderate over time given cooling services wage inflation; however, a sustained period of deflation is unlikely," he warned.
Investors more confident in soft landing as Fed rate cut expectations rise: BofA survey
Investors are increasingly confident the global economy will achieve a "soft landing," where inflation subsides but overall economic activity doesn't significantly deteriorate amid higher interest rates.
In Bank of America's August Global Fund Manager Survey, released on Wednesday, 76% of respondents said a soft landing is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months. This marked the highest percentage of respondents projecting such an outcome dating back to May 2023.
Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, who conducts the survey, noted that the bet for a soft landing is "driven by expectations for lower interest rates." In the latest survey, 93% of investors said they see lower short-term rates in the next 12 months, marking the highest level of confidence in lower rates in the past 24 years.
Additionally, 60% of investors expect four or more interest rate cuts this year. This falls in line with current market pricing, which projects four interest rate cuts in 2024, per Bloomberg data.
The 585 respondents were surveyed between Aug. 2 and Aug. 8, meaning the survey was conducted after a weak July jobs report that increased recession fears and sent markets into a tailspin. But largely,investors' assessment of the economic narrative fell in line with what many economists have argued: The soft landing is still in sight, but Fed rate cuts are needed to get there.
In a weekly note to clients, Morgan Stanley chief global economist Seth Carpenter said he sees the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 75 basis points this year.
"The cumulative evidence to date shows a solid job market and a consumer who continues to spend," Carpenter wrote. "Those factors are self-reinforcing and can keep momentum going. The market has eased rates for the Fed, so we just need the Fed to follow through on our baseline for the soft landing to materialize."
Softer-than-expected PPI data 'positive for equities'
The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in cooler than expected in July, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Tuesday morning.
US producer prices, often a signal for where consumer prices are heading, rose just 0.1% month over month last month, below economist forecasts. The index rose 2.2% year over year, almost in line with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
As of Tuesday morning, markets were pricing in a roughly 53% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of its September meeting, down from a 68% change one week prior, per the CME Fedwatch Tool.
"It's positive for equities," John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer, told Yahoo Finance's Morning Brief. "It releases some of the dark sentiment that had gripped [the market] over the course of the start this month. We can't help but think that this gives the Federal Reserve the opportunity to begin cutting rates."
Stoltzfus said he believes the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with another 25 basis point cut after the election.
"Whether they do another one in December, I'm not sure," he said. "We've been looking for a long time for the second half of the year to be two cuts. ... But these numbers look good. They suggest that the Fed should get cracking when it comes to dealing with rates where they are."
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) Stocks open higher after cooler inflation data
US stocks opened higher on Tuesday as Wall Street digested cooler-than-expected inflation data and awaited an update on consumer prices, due Wednesday.
Shortly after the opening bell, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped roughly 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) inched up about 0.4%.
Chipotle stock tumbles 8% after CEO departs for Starbucks
Chipotle (CMG) stock fell as much as 8% in premarket trading after the company announced the departure of its CEO, Brian Niccol, who will take the same role at Starbucks (SBUX) starting next month.
Niccol has been the CEO of Chipotle since 2018. Scott Boatwright, its COO, will serve as the company's interim CEO.
Niccol has been integral to Chipotle's rebound over the last several years as the company recovered from an E. coli crisis that began in 2015 and weighed on shares for years.
In the year before Niccol joined the company, Chipotle's annual revenues were around $4.5 billion; by 2023, revenue had more than doubled, totaling $9.9 billion for the year. In the past five years, the stock has rallied more than 240% against an 85% gain for the S&P 500.
Ugly quarter out of Home Depot
There isn't much to like in this quarter out of Home Depot (HD).
A checklist ahead of the earnings call:
Same-store sales fell 3.3%.
Same-store sales missed the consensus estimate decline of 2.1%.
Transaction trends worsened from the first quarter.
Full year sales guidance was cut at the mid-point.
Full year EPS guidance was cut at the mid-point.
Chart of the morning comes compliments of BofA
The Bank of America fund manager survey for August is out, and it's clear that investors are worried about the outlook for growth.
The below chart shows a plunge in global growth expectations, which follows a steady drumbeat of negative economic surprises this month (mostly in the US).
Growth expectations take a dive. (BofA)
