As the cryptocurrency market stabilizes following a turbulent period, a new analysis cautions against anticipating a significant breakout in the price of Bitcoin until the last quarter of the year.

Singapore-based digital asset firm QCP Capital said that the market may remain in a holding pattern for the foreseeable future, even as some encouraging signs emerge.

Bitcoin’s overnight recovery to reclaim the $60,000 mark suggests that BTC has managed to stabilize after last week’s sell-off. It ticked higher even when BitGo moved $2 billion worth of Mt. Gox BTC on Monday night, hinting that the market might be starting to shrug off the potential supply impact of these transactions.

Ethereum (ETH) has also seen positive movement, with spot ETFs marking a two-day winning streak and attracting $24.3 million in net inflows on Tuesday.

This comes as market expectations shift towards a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, spurred by a softer U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report.

However, QCP Capital notes that while the current environment appears supportive, major catalysts necessary for a breakout are lacking.

“With consistent ETF inflows and BlackRock buying the dip last week, crypto seems relatively well supported,” the firm noted. “However, with no major catalysts on the horizon, we anticipate limited major breakouts until Q4.”

In a separate report, 10x Research emphasized the importance of stablecoin inflows in sustaining any significant rally, noting Tether’s recent minting of $1 billion in USDT—though mainly for inventory building—alongside a $2.8 billion issuance by Tether and Circle last week.

This signals that institutional capital is gradually re-entering the market, but this momentum is already showing signs of waning.

10x Research also highlighted that for Bitcoin to move substantially above the $60,000 to $61,000 resistance zone, more support is needed. 

“A strong stablecoin inflow is essential to make the breakout sustainable,” they noted, pointing out that other factors like the expansion of futures and derivatives leverage, which fueled rebounds earlier this year, are now having less impact.

Edited by Ryan Ozawa.