Stock market today: US futures steady as countdown to Jackson Hole begins

08/19/2024 18:05
Stock market today: US futures steady as countdown to Jackson Hole begins

Stocks traded on both sides of the flat line on Friday after a strong week of gains had US stocks on pace for their best week of the year.

US stocks were broadly steady on Monday after posting their best week in a year, as investors began counting down to Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole that could reset rate-cut expectations.

S&P 500 future (ES=F) traded flat but held near record highs, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) also wavered around the flatline. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) slipped 0.1%.

Stocks are set to consolidate last week's strong gains as a measure of calm returns to a market previously whipsawed by worries about a potential recession. Last week's rally recouped the losses stacked up in an early August sell-off as Wall Street fretted about cracks in the economy — concerns that have since been eased by encouraging inflation and consumer spending data.

Focus is already turning to Federal Reserve chair Powell's speech at the central bank's Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, in a quiet week for economic data. As confidence in a "soft landing" for the economy grows — Goldman Sachs now sees a lower likelihood of recession — the question for investors isn't whether the Fed will lower interest rates in September, but by how much.

As of Monday morning, traders are pricing in a 72% chance the Fed will reduce rates by 0.25% at that meeting, and 28% odds for a 0.50% cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. But the release on Wednesday of minutes from the Fed's July meeting could sway those bets.

Meanwhile, investors will also keep a watchful eye on the Democratic National Convention kicking off on Monday, which could bring more insight what to expect from presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

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