Crypto bettors are gambling on Obama’s speech at the Democratic National Convention

08/21/2024 05:30
Crypto bettors are gambling on Obama’s speech at the Democratic National Convention

The crypto community has invested money predicting what Obama might say in Chicago.

Cryptocurrency gamblers are betting more than $384,000 that former president Barack Obama’s speech tonight at the Democratic National Convention will feature trending topics such as the Affordable Care Act, President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, climate change, democracy, and even his wife, former First Lady Michelle Obama.

Most of the topics are general and broad enough that Obama’s likelihood of referencing them is relatively high – especially any allusions to Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Curiously, Polymarket bettors have not listed Kamala Harris as a featured potential talking point for the former president, even though Obama is speaking at the DNC primarily to support Harris’ bid for the presidency.

In the last few months, Polymarket has emerged as a popular prediction market platform for users to bet crypto on trending current events. Created in 2020, the platform has attracted a record number of crypto gamblers looking to weigh in on the year's most salient topics, including world events.

In June alone, Polymarket logged more than $100 million in predictions, allowing its yearly total to reach $360 million. The platform accounts for 85% of all predictions made online.

Prediction markets have successfully forecast candidates’ moves this election cycle, including whether President Joe Biden would drop out of the presidential contest before he actually did.

Similarly, Polymarket bettors are now placing bets that presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. may soon withdraw from November’s contest.

Meanwhile, a separate Polymarket contest on who will win the 2024 presidential election has placed former president Donald Trump’s chances at 50%, while Vice President Kamala Harris' probability now sits at 48%. More than $82 million in crypto has been bet on Trump, while over $74 million has been poured into Harris' chances on the Polymarket question.

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