Ethereum price will likely drop to $2,000 first before jumping to $4,000, according to Polymarket, the popular prediction platform.

Odds of Ethereum (ETH) falling to $2,000 before Dec. 31 have been rising since Aug. 25, when they bottomed at 54%. These odds increased to 60% on Aug. 27 as the coin dropped to $2,600 from this week’s high of $2,818.

Ethereum, like most altcoins, has been in a strong downward trend since March, when it peaked at $4,085. Therefore, the odds of falling to $2,000 have risen since the coin needs to drop by 23%. It would need to rise by 54% to reach $4,000.

Another Polymarket poll with $231,000 in assets shows an 8% chance of Ether rising to $3,000 before September. Most traders in another poll with $1.1 million don’t expect it to hit a record high this year.

Ethereum has faced numerous challenges this year. It is experiencing substantial competition in the stablecoin market, where Tron (TRX) is handling billions of dollars in transactions each day.

It is also facing competition in the Decentralized Finance industry, where Solana (SOL) had the most DEX volume in July as demand for its meme coins rose. Solana’s DEX volume was $57 billion in July, while Ethereum handled $54.5 billion.

This month, however, Ethereum is leading by far, having handled $50 billion compared to Solana’s $33 billion.

The biggest challenge that Ether is facing is that its exchange-traded funds are not having traction among investors. Data by SoSoValue shows that these funds have had a cumulative outflow of $477 million since their inception. They have had outflows in the past eight consecutive days. 

Ethereum formed a death cross

Additionally, Ether has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows. Most importantly, it has also formed a death cross as the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages have crossed each other. 

It has also formed a bearish flag chart pattern, pointing to more downside. If this happens, the next point to watch will be this month’s low at $2,113. A break below that point will raise the chances of the coin falling to $2,000.