Does Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s ascent to power mark the dawn of a crypto-friendly Thailand, or is her silence on the issue a sign of caution?

Who is the new Thailand PM, and why does it matter?

Thailand has made history by electing its youngest Prime Minister ever — Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a 37-year-old political newcomer from one of the nation’s most influential and controversial families. 

Paetongtarn is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, a former Prime Minister whose tenure from 2001 to 2006 was marked by rapid economic growth as well as deep political division. 

Thaksin’ policies earned him both devoted supporters and fierce critics, eventually leading to his removal from office in a military coup in 2006 and his subsequent exile in 2008.

After 15 years away, Thaksin made a highly publicized return to Thailand last year, sparking speculation about his continued influence on Thai politics. The Shinawatra legacy doesn’t end there. 

Paetongtarn’ aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, also served as Prime Minister from 2011 to 2014 before being ousted in yet another coup and going into exile. 

Now, with Paetongtarn assuming the role, she becomes the third member of her family to hold Thailand’s top political office, citing the lasting influence of the Shinawatras in Thai politics.

Paetongtarn’ rise to power followed the removal of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, by Thailand’s Constitutional Court. Srettha was found guilty of an ethical breach related to appointing a Cabinet minister who had previously been jailed for attempting to bribe a judge.

There’s a lot of speculation that Paetongtarn might steer Thailand toward becoming a crypto-friendly country. Her father, Thaksin, is known for being pro-crypto, especially Bitcoin (BTC), and many believe his influence could push Thailand toward embracing crypto. 

However, despite these speculations, Paetongtarn has remained conspicuously silent on her stance regarding crypto since taking office.

Paetongtarn has promised to make Thailand a place where people can ‘’dare to dream, create, and shape their own future.’’ But what does this vision mean for the future of crypto in Thailand? 

While Paetongtarn has remained largely silent on crypto since assuming office, her father’s well-documented enthusiasm for digital assets has fueled speculation that she might follow in his footsteps. 

In 2019, Coin Rivet reported that Thaksin compared the potential of blockchain to the early days of the internet, predicting it would create a “new rich” among young entrepreneurs willing to embrace the opportunities it offers. 

He highlighted how blockchain could transform industries by making business practices more transparent and efficient, using a Rwandan coffee company that utilized blockchain to connect local suppliers with high-end retailers as an example.

Thaksin’ engagement with the crypto world goes beyond just words. He is well-connected within Thailand’s fintech and crypto communities, as evidenced by his meetings with key figures in the industry. 

In May 2024, the Bangkok Post reported that Thaksin met with Worawat Narknawdee, a crypto investor and one of Thailand’s pioneering Bitcoin miners, further cementing his pro-crypto stance.

Adding more intrigue to Thaksin’ crypto connection is a recent social media post that has been making the rounds. The post shows four different pictures of Thaksin in his office, each capturing a clock in the background that tracks Bitcoin’s price over various periods. 

The images, likely taken at different time intervals, have fueled speculation that Thaksin closely monitors BTC’s price performance, reinforcing the idea that he’s deeply invested in the crypto world.

However, while Thaksin’ views are well-documented, Paetongtarn has yet to publicly declare her position on cryptocurrency, leaving room for speculation and debate about the direction she will take.

Thailand’s strides toward crypto integration

Thailand has been making moves toward bringing crypto into its financial system. One of the most notable steps is the launch of the Digital Asset Regulatory Sandbox.

Launched on Aug. 9, the sandbox is designed to “facilitate experiments and the development of innovations supporting the efficient provision of digital asset services in a real-life context,” according to the Thai SEC. 

In simple terms, it allows participants to test various crypto-related services under flexible rules, encouraging new ideas while making sure these services are developed in a safe environment.

The sandbox focuses on six main areas: exchanges, brokers, dealers, fund managers, advisors, and custodial wallet providers. 

To take part, companies need to show they have solid qualifications, like enough capital and strong management systems, ensuring that only those with a firm foundation can experiment with these new technologies.

The creation of this sandbox follows a clear trend of crypto-friendly actions by the Thai government. Over the past few years, Thailand has slowly rolled out measures to support the growth of its crypto market.

For example, in March 2024, the Thai cabinet approved a tax exemption on crypto earnings from investment tokens, aiming to boost the country’s digital finance competitiveness. 

This was soon followed by the SEC’s approval of Thailand’s first spot Bitcoin ETF, further showing the nation’s commitment to supporting digital assets.

However, not all of Thailand’s recent digital plans have been welcomed with open arms.

The government’s Digital Wallet program, announced in April, has sparked widespread debate. The program aims to provide 10,000 baht (about $275) to 50 million citizens, distributed as digital money to be spent at local businesses. 

While this idea was a major campaign promise of the ruling Pheu Thai party, it has been criticized for being too restrictive.

To qualify for the program, citizens must meet specific criteria, such as being over 16 years old, earning less than 840,000 baht ($23,710) annually, and having savings under 500,000 baht ($14,072). 

Even then, the digital money can only be spent on select necessities at local small businesses and must be used through an official government mobile app.

Some analysts at the Cato Institute argue that the program has the features of a central bank digital currency, even though the government insists it is not run by the central bank. 

The rules on how the money can be spent and the need to use the official app suggest that this initiative might work much like a CBDC, just without the label.

Will Paetongtarn keep Thailand on the crypto-friendly path?

Paetongtarn’s predecessor, Thavisin, was known for embracing digital assets, leading many to wonder if Paetongtarn would follow in his footsteps or introduce her own approach.

Slava Demchuk, CEO of AMLBot, shared exclusive insights with crypto.news that help paint a clearer picture of what might lie ahead:

Paetongtarn’s father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was optimistic about cryptocurrencies. With her leadership, there’s a strong possibility she will continue Shinawatra’s legacy of innovative financial policies.

Demchuk also pointed out that Thailand’s recent history of embracing digital assets provides a solid foundation for Paetongtarn to build upon:

Thailand has already made great progress in creating a welcoming environment for crypto investors and entrepreneurs. The proactive stance of the Thai SEC has been key in this, establishing a robust legal framework that has attracted numerous blockchain companies to the country…. Given her family’s history and the existing framework, it’s highly probable that Paetongtarn will continue to push Thailand forward in the digital asset space.

Meanwhile, Coindesk reported that Tanawat Sutunthivorakoon, CEO of Bitazza Thailand, believes that the removal of PM Srettha will have minimal impact on the country’s digital asset regulations.

Similarly, Sanjay Popli, CEO of Cryptomind Advisory, noted that the ruling Pheu Thai party remains in power, making it unlikely that there will be major changes to the existing crypto-friendly policies.

Adding another layer of complexity is the controversial digital wallet handout program. According to The Nation, Paetongtarn affirmed the significance of this initiative.

She stated, “The digital wallet scheme is a project we intend to use as a major economic stimulus,” suggesting that, despite its critics, the program may still play a central role in her government’s economic strategy.

For now, all eyes are on Paetongtarn as she steps into this critical role. With her background and the strong foundation laid by her predecessors, the odds seem to favor a pro-crypto future for Thailand.

However, as with any new leadership, the potential for surprises remains, keeping the global crypto community on alert for what comes next.