Will Polymarket have an airdrop? This year's staggering rise of the crypto prediction market has fueled speculation that the platform will debut its own token, and potentially reward its growing pool of users. And some of those users already appear to be making moves to improve their chances of scoring big.

To be clear, Polymarket has yet to announce plans for a token, and the company did not reply to Decrypt's request for comment. But amid surging trading volume alongside the U.S. election cycle, some users in the Polymarket community expect a token to launch within the next year, with a noticeable subgroup of traders already attempting to farm the potential airdrop.

Traders have begun shifting their behavior amid the speculation by attempting to artificially inflate their trading volume in the hopes of scooping a larger airdrop reward, Decrypt was told by whales observing the behavior.

Due to the platform not charging transaction or subscription fees, Polymarket may be eyeing a token to fuel its next phase of potential growth and expansion following a funding round earlier this year. The prediction market raised $70 million in May during its Series B, with backing from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

“Polymarket is running on zero fees right now and just raised a bunch of money,” pseudonymous trader Tyrael told Decrypt. “Usually, that follows with a token generation event so investors are able to get some return on capital.”

Polymarket, which is built on Ethereum scaling network Polygon, has emerged as one of the most successful crypto products this year, attracting almost $450 million in trading volume for August and reaching a peak of more than 60,000 monthly active traders, according to Dune data. 

It is even being quoted as an essential source in non-crypto-native reporting of the U.S. presidential election, as noted by Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Coplan.

According to Polymarket whale Fhantom Bets, the site saw increased trading volume following the fresh capital injection from its Series B funding round, intensifying the airdrop rumors.

“It doesn't seem like there's any other way for it to make money without an airdrop,” Polymarket whale CSP Trading, also known as CrunchWrapoDeLaFuente, told Decrypt. 

Because of this, the airdrop may be limited in size as the project looks to raise money rather than give it away, CSP said. “I suspect a token might be coming and maybe a small airdrop, but nothing significant,” CSP added.

While any official confirmation or ETA for the rumored Polymarket token launch remains elusive, Fhantom Bets speculates it’ll likely be after the U.S. election as a way to keep new users on the site once this hype cycle fades.

Polymarket’s success has been largely accelerated by the 2024 U.S. presidential election. In August, the protocol’s monthly volume hit $472.8 million, or a 5,961% year-over-year jump from the $7.8 million tally recorded in August 2023, according to Dune data. 

A similar trend can be seen when looking at Polymarket’s monthly new accounts mark, with 71,670 being created in August 2024. Only 3,916 were created the year prior—and just 3,700 this March just before election madness began.

How are people farming?

Many users have noticed that “volume farmers” are attempting to artificially inflate the total volume they have traded by quickly buying and selling their positions. Farmers believe this will improve their slice of a potential Polymarket airdrop, Decrypt was told.

Airdrops are generally distributed to users who meet specific criteria, such as holding a certain amount of related tokens, interacting with a platform, or actively participating in the project’s community. The tokens they receive from an airdrop can often be traded on exchanges, incentivizing users to participate.

Its not difficult to find users who are buying large amounts of shares and then immediately selling them to inflate their volume ranking. For example, we found an account that spent $102.71 buying 102,711 shares of a non-listed country winning the most medals at the 2024 Paralympics. They then sold all of these shares within the same hour. The shares sold for the same value, and because Polymarket has no transaction fees, the account did not lose any capital. Because each share is counted as $1 in volume, the account boosted its volume by $205,422.

There are tons of accounts with similar behavior. In another example, this account bought and sold $45.90 worth of shares betting that Donald Trump will lose the election, inflating their volume by $194 and losing just 9 cents in the process.

This has led to profiles having a tiny value of active positions with barely any profit or loss, but a significant amount of volume traded—such as trader Jun28 with $19,300 volume but under $12 in losses. 

Whales, or individuals holding large amounts of a specific token, say this behavior is annoying as it clutters up the activity page with spam trades.

“I doubt any of that volume would be rewarded,” Fhantom Bets, who has the third-largest volume of all time on the site, told Decrypt. “If there’s any farming reporting period, I would be the number one guy making sure that no one is rewarded for this kinda stuff.”

Edited by Andrew Hayward