Bitcoin’s market has been in consolidation since its March 13th high, with prices moving sideways, but we are well withing the 170day timeframe price has chopped sideways in the previous two cycles before bulls took full control into a parabolic bull trend. Their are conflicting signals at the moment triggering emotional capiulation, while long term holders are stacking at every opportunity. This signals Bitcoin has NOT topped out yet. I’ve been closely watching these trends, and I want to walk you through the crucial indicators that could shape Bitcoin's next big move.

One of the key factors to watch is Bitcoin miner activity. Over the last 72 hours, miners sold more than 30,000 Bitcoin—around $1.71 billion worth—and yet, the price has remained stable. This suggests a strong bull base defending these levels. We’re seeing a decrease in Bitcoin reserves (lower available supply) while stablecoin reserves are rising, a strong indicator of potential buying power waiting on the sidelines. This could lead to a price rally soon, though the exact timing is uncertain. We huge economic news September 18th regarding potential rate cuts, and the election in early November..

Institutional influence is also growing, for better or worse. The financial landscape beyond Bitcoin shows some unsettling signs which is likely adding to some cautious uncertainty in global markets: savings rates are at historic lows, bankruptcies are spiking, and personal debt is at an all-time high. With major players like Blackrock and Fidelity in the game, the retail investor might be at risk of missing the boat if they don’t position themselves correctly before this market does start to move. Because when it does, it will happen quickly.

Bitcoin’s current price is sitting near, but below the cost basis for several institutional ETFs, meaning big players are holding at a loss. This does raise a flag of caution as we are not yet sure if these new Bitcoin ETF participants will de-risk further, or look to bitcoin as a longer term play.

We’re also seeing volatility levels at historic lows, but that might not last long. Bitcoin’s leverage ratio is soaring to all-time highs, creating a powder keg of potential movement. Based on previous cycles, we’re roughly 143 days post-halving, and breakouts typically occur around 165-175 days. Long-term holders are stepping in to buy the dips as short-term holders exit the market. This trend, combined with tightening Bollinger Bands (the same conditions as the end of last summer before breakout), suggests we could be on the verge of Bitcoin bulls taking control. If Bitcoin follows historical patterns, we might see a new all-time high within the next few months.

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Key Points:

• Bitcoin miners sold $1.71 billion worth of BTC recently, yet prices remain stable.

• Rising stablecoin reserves and decreasing Bitcoin supply indicate strong buying potential.

• Institutional investors hold significant influence, with Bitcoin near their cost basis.

• Volatility is low, but on-chain data suggests a big move is imminent, possibly leading to new all-time highs.

• Still in a bullish structure so long as we hold above $45k.

• Expect price chop traps in both directions before a confirmed continuation.