The 'messy transition' from growth to value may stay messy for a while: Morning Brief

10/01/2024 17:19
The 'messy transition' from growth to value may stay messy for a while: Morning Brief

RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina pointed to the "messy" broadening in the stock market — and thinks it will stay this way.

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All year long, strategists have been calling for a broadening of the stock market rally beyond Big Tech. Lately, in fits and starts, that’s begun to happen.

One way to measure the broadening is to look at that old playbook, growth vs. value. That is, the buzzy, high-growth stocks like the "Magnificent Seven" vs. out-of-favor, less sexy companies that have fallen below what some investors view as their fair value.

The Russell 1000 Growth Index (^RLG) has still outpaced the Russell 1000 Value Index (^RLV) this year, rising about 23% to the RLV’s 14%. But value’s returns sped up in the third quarter ended yesterday, with about an 8% gain vs. growth’s relatively paltry 2% increase.

The transition might be underway from growth to value, but it’s not going to be an easy or straight path, said Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

In a note to clients, Calvasina wrote that "a messy transition in leadership away from mega cap Growth appears to be underway, but we think it has the potential to stay messy for some time."

When it comes to the growth trade, she told Yahoo Finance that there are three obstacles to these stocks going higher:

  1. Positioning: “The positioning is extremely elevated. If you look at the CFTC data on Nasdaq 100 futures positioning as a proxy, it's been breaking through to new highs, and is above levels that we've seen a market ceiling in the past.”

  2. Valuation: “When we look at the top ten names in the S&P, they really have a bad track record in terms of their ability to be able to sustain a median P/E [price-earnings] multiple above 30 times. So they went up to 32 times over the summer and then moved right back down. They're still up around 27, but the rest of the market is trading at a median P/E of about 18 times and has never quite hit its sort of a typical ceiling or typical peak.”

  3. Slowing growth: “I've done this a long time, and when you see superior growth rates start to fade, people get angsty, people get nervous, and the bar to outperform tends to be a bit higher. So what's the problem? The problem is that even though the Mag 7 earnings growth is decelerating, it's only decelerating on 2025 numbers to like 15%, and the rest of the market, while it’s reaccelerating, it’s only reaccelerating to like 13%.”

That last point is one reason she believes there won’t be an automatic or seamless switch in leadership between the two.

Calvasina also said she expects to see some chop as the market is valued higher than where it "deserves to be" and gave a "conservative 2025 outlook of 6,200 (BMO's Brian Belski sees 6,100 this year).

There are plenty of investors out there who aren’t waiting. One is Sandy Villere, a portfolio manager at Villere and Co. who looks for value no matter the market conditions.

Stocks overall tend to rise after Federal Reserve rate cuts, with small caps doing even better, he told Yahoo Finance in an interview.

“So I think the wind is at our back,” he said. “And I think we can use some volatility in October going into this election to buy some great companies at reasonable prices.”

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