• The crypto market shrugged off HBO's 'big reveal' and BTC remains unchanged after Peter Todd was named as Satoshi.

• China's post-holiday rally has come to a screeching halt with indices well into the red during the morning trading session.

Bitcoin {{BTC}} remains little changed as a hyped HBO documentary turned out to be a market dud, and traders await the latest U.S. economic figures, scheduled for later Wednesday and Thursday, before further positioning.

BTC lost just 0.4% in the past 24 hours, with a 0.61% drop in major tokens tracked by the liquid CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index. Ether {{ETH}} rose 0.3%, BNB Chain’s {{BNB}}, Solana’s {{SOL}} and XRP {{XRP}} were little changed. Sui Network’s {{SUI}} fell 7% after a multi-week run that saw the token gain over 20% since late September.

The HBO documentary "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" sparked significant interest and speculation in the cryptocurrency community about the identity of Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, in the past week. Nakamoto’s true identity, in theory, could be a sudden volatility-boosting event for crypto markets, and past attempts have been unfruitful.

HBO continued that streak by pinning Bitcoin developer Peter Todd as Nakamoto on pieces of online evidence from the network’s early years. Todd denied the claims in an interview with CoinDesk, and the Bitcoin community on X has largely dismissed HBO’s apparent findings.

Betting market activity

Over $44.3 million was bet on Polymarket as to who would be identified as Satoshi. Most of the volume was split between Len Sassaman and Adam Back, who both caught the eyes of bettors in the market’s early days.

Another market that asked bettors if Satoshi’s identity would be proven this year was fairly unchanged despite the documentary hype. The ‘Yes’ side of “Not Proven in 2024” dipped to 82% from 98% when the documentary was announced, but quickly moved back into the 90s within three days. It is currently at 95.5%.

ETFs bleed money, China rally wanes

On Monday, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. recorded a cumulative outflow of over $18 million, SoSoValue data show, with Fidelity’s FBTC losing over $48 million. ETH ETFs recorded over $8 million in withdrawals, led by a $4.8 million outflow from Bitwise’s ETHW product.

Low volatility in BTC came after a lack of new measures and announcements of new stimulus at a Chinese briefing on Tuesday pared hopes of a long-drawn stimulus package – one that contributed to a bitcoin run in the past few weeks.

Stocks in China are deep in the red as the stimulus euphoria has seemed to have worn off, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.9% and Shenzhen’s Component Index down 4%.

Traders, meanwhile, look toward an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for clues on where BTC might move next. The agency is expected to release FOMC minutes and key economic figures from August that track growth on Wednesday and Thursday – which typically moves prices.

Polymarket bettors are forecasting a 25bps decrease for November, while the chance of a 50bps decrease is down to 9%, having fallen from 46% at the end of September.

“As the Chinese rally wanes, we anticipate capital reallocation back into crypto, reflecting the industry’s growing maturity as an alternative risk-on asset,” QCP Capital traders said in a Wednesday broadcast. “We foresee near-term downside risk for equities due to upcoming earnings season and CPI release, which may challenge their lofty valuations. Geopolitical tensions further complicate the outlook.”

“However, we maintain a medium-term optimistic stance, expecting election headlines to continue driving crypto movement,” QCP added.