The price of bitcoin returned above $65,000 on Monday, a critical resistance level for the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Bitcoin saw its highest price in two weeks, as investors had uneven reactions to China’s economic stimulus efforts over the weekend.

Indeed, China’s attempt to rejuvenate its economy has boosted interest in riskier assets like bitcoin and altcoins – cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin – as traditional stocks face skepticism.

Bitcoin's $65,000 price point is also continuing to boost altcoins. Over the weekend, ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, and Solana, the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, rose in price, clearly benefiting from bitcoin's upward trend.

October has historically been a significant month for bitcoin, often marked by major price movements. Despite the bullish momentum, it’s still not clear if the much-anticipated “Uptober” has arrived, and market analysts warn that it still might be premature to cast that label, given the market's volatility and unpredictability.

While past Octobers have shown positive price action for bitcoin, each year carries unique circumstances impacting market behavior.

“My fear is that we try to derive meaning from repetition when it might just be coincidence and investors should be careful,” said James Toldeno, the Chief Operating Officer at Unity Wallet. “We know from traditional markets and the wisdom of seasoned investors not to look for patterns or try to time the markets.”

There are complex factors that drive cryptocurrency markets, he added. He pointed to 2021 as an example of how specific events, rather than seasonal patterns, drove significant price movements. In 2021, institutional investment and mainstream adoption spurred bitcoin to rise by 40%, but Toldeno said this was ultimately “down to specific events.”

Likewise, this year's unique geopolitical tensions also led bitcoin to plunge 4% in the beginning of October 2024, mirroring “historical patterns of mid-month recoveries.”

Liquidations also play a role: “Liquidation spikes have also been common in October, with 2024 seeing $540 million in liquidations early in the month. This aligns with past years when liquidation events preceded a recovery,” Toldeno added.

Despite the mixed signals, Toldeno acknowledges that October has shown a tendency for positive endings in the past. “October has tended to end positively, and it’s not uncommon for the month to start with a dip. In 2023, Bitcoin lost 7% in the first half of the month before rallying by 30% toward the end,” Toldeno said.