• Is a surge incoming for Bitcoin before the upcoming U.S. elections?
• BTC could rally to $70K by the end of October.

On the 14th of October, Bitcoin [BTC] rallied 5% and retested $66K as analysts linked the upswing to upcoming U.S. elections. 

Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, termed the latest rally a “Trump bump,” citing increasing odds of Trump winning the U.S. elections. 

But Kamala Harris’s recent pledge to support a crypto regulatory framework has made some pundits believe that the 2024 elections could be a win-win for the industry. 

U.S. election factor

On its part, crypto trading firm QCP Capital believed the rally was part of historical trends ahead of the U.S. elections. 

“The timing ahead of the U.S. elections mirrors historical patterns. In both 2016 and 2020, #BTC surged just three weeks before #Election2024 Day.” 

In 2016, BTC hiked from $600 three weeks before the U.S. elections and doubled by January 2017. Similarly, BTC exploded from $11K before the 2020 elections and hit $42K by January 2021. 

Will the trend repeat in 2024? AMBCrypto asked Bitget Research’s chief analyst, Ryan Lee, what his thoughts were,

Lee said that BTC has remained resilient despite the strengthening U.S. dollar. This could signal a bullish phase for the asset in the medium term.

He projected BTC could remain range-bound or explode above $70K by the end of October. 

“Volatility in the crypto market will likely increase ahead of key events — the next November Fed meeting and the US elections at the same time. BTC price fluctuations may range from $58,000 to $69,000.”

That said, the demand for BTC has increased in the past 30 days, hitting levels last seen in April. This was a complete turnaround from the low demand in Q2/Q3, 2024. 

Besides, the recent BTC hike confirmed a higher low trend that could signal a potential market structure shift and an end to the re-accumulation phase witnessed since March. 

However, renowned analyst Peter Brandt believed a market structure shift could happen only if BTC surged above $68.2K.

At press time, BTC was valued at $65.6K, about 12% below its ATH of $73.7K.