Why Bitcoin could hit $80K after the election, according to Travis Kling
10/24/2024 21:28Ikigai fund founder Travis Kling shares his bold crypto predictions on memecoins, AI Agents, and Bitcoin's price
As Bitcoin retreats from a new run at all-time highs, crypto markets are swirling with speculation around memecoins, AI agents, and Wall Street’s increasing involvement with Bitcoin ETFs.
To break down these trends, Coinage caught up with Travis Kling, founder of Ikigai Asset Management, for his take on where the market is headed and what investors should watch for in the last couple of weeks leading into election season.
“It’s definitely all eyes on the election,” Kling said, pointing to the uncertainty gripping both traditional and crypto markets. “If Trump wins, Bitcoin could shoot to the low $80,000s very quickly, but if Kamala Harris wins, we might see a dip down to the high $40,000s.” The market’s current position, he suggests, is almost like hedging for both outcomes, with Bitcoin trading around a fair value that splits the difference between these two possibilities.
"It would be my base case that there will be a a meaningful dip in Bitcoin's price if Harris wins, but I don't know if it's going to be all that deep or all that long," Kling said. Most analysts believe that any short-term volatility will likely evaporate — and other congressional races may arguably be even more important. As Politico reported this week, Congress is likely to be the most pro-crypto it has ever been regardless of who wins the presidency.
But beyond the election, one of the hottest topics is the rise of memecoins. These tokens have captured the crypto community’s attention, with some arguing that they are reshaping how digital communities form and thrive. Kling sees this phenomenon as part of a larger shift away from overhyped altcoins that have failed to deliver real use cases. “The rise of memecoin mania, in my view, is a direct response to the lack of significant traction for all use cases, excluding stablecoins,” he explained. “Bitcoin has product-market fit, stablecoins have product-market fit, and everything else is, you know, a solution looking for a problem at best.”
Kling points to the incentive structure in the crypto venture capital space as a major issue, describing it as a “big problem” for the altcoin market. “In traditional venture capital, your winners make up for the losers. But in crypto, you’ve got VCs making 25 times their money on projects that didn’t do anything.” Memecoins, according to Kling, are siphoning attention away from these faltering projects and forcing the market to confront this misalignment.
While memecoins and AI might seem like the wild west, Wall Street’s increasing presence in crypto through ETFs and options is another key development Kling is tracking.
With Bitcoin ETFs already attracting institutional capital, the introduction of options could dampen volatility and make Bitcoin more palatable to traditional investors. “Boomers hate the big drawdowns in Bitcoin,” Kling pointed out. “With options, you can buy downside protection, which makes Bitcoin more appealing to traditional capital.” He also noted the appeal of structured products that could allow investors to generate yield, something he believes could bring even more capital into the space.
Still, the increasing institutionalization of Bitcoin raises questions about the future of its role in the financial system. “Bitcoin’s future is either becoming more institutionalized or becoming a hedge against a Mad Max dystopia,” Kling said, acknowledging the two potential paths. “I’m betting on the former.” As Wall Street continues to build on Bitcoin’s growing reputation as pristine collateral, Kling expects the asset to become more ingrained in the traditional financial system. But with that shift, volatility may diminish, leading to a “grind up” rather than the explosive growth that early Bitcoin adopters have come to expect.
For now, the crypto market seems caught between these two extremes — memecoin speculation and institutional acceptance of Bitcoin. As Kling aptly put it, “It’s more interesting directionally, intellectually, as a new kind of use case, a new type of human coordination tool.” And while memecoins may continue to capture the imaginations of the masses, the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin seems increasingly tied to Wall Street’s embrace of digital assets.