Toncoin (TON), the Telegram-native cryptocurrency, has seen its price decrease by 17% within the last 30 days. As a result, TON’s price fell below $5 before a slight bounce.

Despite this decline, the cryptocurrency’s price could be in line to recover some losses. This assertion is due to the change in sentiment of Toncoin short-term holders, which this on-chain analysis reveals.

Toncoin Holders Push for Recovery

While TON’s price might have fallen below $5, IntoTheBlock data shows that the token’s Coins Holding Time has increased. Within the last seven days, this metric, which measures the amount of time a cryptocurrency has been held without being sold, is up 142%

Typically, when the holding time decreases, short-term holders have lost confidence in a crypto’s potential. However, since it increased, it indicates that Toncoin short-term holders believe that a rebound could be close.

For that to happen, the token’s Coins Holding Time has to sustain this momentum. If that happens, then Toncoin’s price might not add to its month-long 17% decline.

Read more: What Are Telegram Bot Coins?

Another metric supporting this bias is the Large Holder Netflow to Exchange Ratio. This metric basically shows whether large holders of a cryptocurrency are sending more tokens to an exchange.

When the ratio rises, it indicates that these stakeholders are transferring more tokens to exchanges, often signaling an intent to sell. Conversely, a drop in the ratio suggests investors are holding back on selling as they avoid sending tokens to centralized platforms.

Therefore, the decline, as seen below, indicates that Toncoin whales have refrained from liquidating their assets. Should that remain the same, it could have a positive impact on TON’s price.

TON Price Prediction: Rally to $6 Begins

From a technical point of view, Toncoin is witnessing a massive rise in the Money Flow Index (MFI). The MFI, as the name implies, refers to the rate at which liquidity is entering a cryptocurrency.

A higher MFI  signals increased buying pressure, while a lower MFI points to rising selling pressure, often implying a potential price drop. For TON, with buying pressure currently elevated, this suggests the cryptocurrency could push beyond $5.22.

 Leveraging the Fibonacci indicator—which identifies key support and resistance levels—a continued rise in buying pressure might drive Toncoin’s price up to $6.15.

Read more: 6 Best Toncoin (TON) Wallets in 2024

However, if Toncoin short-term holders opt to sell some assets, this upward trajectory could be disrupted, potentially causing the price to slide back to $4.46.