Ford Q2 earnings: Profit guidance, EV losses in focus

10/29/2024 02:29
Ford Q2 earnings: Profit guidance, EV losses in focus

Ford will report third quarter earnings after the bell on Monday, following rival GM’s blowout Q3 result and third profit guidance boost for the year.

Ford (F) will report third quarter earnings after the bell on Monday, following rival GM’s blowout Q3 result and third profit guidance boost for the year. Ford is also under the spotlight as investors eye any update to its loss-making EV business.

For the quarter, Ford is expected to report revenue of $41.2 billion, down compared to the $47.8 billion reported last quarter and lower than the $43.8 billion reported a year ago. Ford is also expected to post adjusted EPS of $0.49, on EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $3.64 billion.

As part of its Ford+ plan, Ford divided its business into three units: Ford Blue for the traditional gas-powered business, Ford Model e for the EV division, and Ford Pro for its commercial and super duty truck business. Analysts are expecting the following for Q3:

  • Ford Blue: $24.63 billion in revenue

  • Model e: $1.42 billion in revenue

  • Ford Pro: $15.28 billion in revenue

Ford Pro has been the highlight for the automaker, with the commercial unit's profits easily exceeding its Ford Blue traditional gas-powered vehicle business in recent quarters. On the flip side is Ford’s Model e EV unit, which lost another $1.14 billion in EBIT last quarter and is expected to lose $5.5 billion in 2024.

That being said, Ford’s EVs have been selling. Ford’s Q3 US deliveries, reported earlier this month, jumped 4.3% year over year to 504,039 vehicles, though they are still down compared to the 536,050 delivered last quarter. Ford said EV sales jumped 12% year over year, powered by the Ford Lightning pickup and Ford E-transit van. Ford hybrid vehicles, led by the Maverick pickup, surged 38% year over year.

Changes to Ford’s 2024 full-year guidance will be top of mind for investors. Last quarter, Ford maintained its current full-year adjusted EBIT of $10 billion to $12 billion, but the company did raise its adjusted free cash flow forecast by $1 billion to between $7.5 billion and $8.5 billion.

FILE - A line of unsold 2024 Mustang Mach-E electric utility vehicles sit at a Ford dealership May 19, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)

A line of unsold 2024 Mustang Mach-E electric utility vehicles sit at a Ford dealership May 19, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

GM, on the other hand, has raised its guidance each quarter this year, and now sees adjusted EBIT of $14 billion to $15 billion ($13 billion-$15 billion previously), among other metrics.

GM also announced $16 billion in buybacks and share repurchases over the past year, whereas Ford has not thus far.

Ford’s EV business will continue to stay in the spotlight. Ford CEO Jim Farley and his team are forecasting $5.5 billion in losses in the EV unit; whether the company has seen any improvements in this area will be closely watched.

Conversely, GM projects it will achieve EV profitability on a positive variable profit margin basis by the end of this year, whereas Ford said it only sees real profitability with the coming of its second-gen EVs. Ford will give a full update on its EV business outlook and profitability in the first half of next year.

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