Ford stock falls despite Q3 sales beat, as the automaker guides to lower end of 2024 profit forecast

10/29/2024 23:54
Ford stock falls despite Q3 sales beat, as the automaker guides to lower end of 2024 profit forecast

Ford reported third quarter earnings after the bell on Monday, beating on revenue but bringing down its full-year profit forecast to the lower end of its range.

Ford (F) reported third quarter earnings after the bell on Monday, beating on revenue but guiding to the lower end of its full-year forecast.

The automaker's results follow rival GM’s (GM) blowout Q3 report and third profit guidance boost for the year.

Ford reported revenue of $46.2 billion compared with the $41.9 billion estimated per Bloomberg data. That was lower than the $47.8 billion reported last quarter but 5% higher than revenue of $43.8 billion a year ago.

It posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.49, matching estimates, on adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of $2.6 billion. Net income came in at $900 million, affected by a one-time $1 billion EV-related charge that had been previously disclosed.

Ford brought down its full-year profit forecast. The automaker now expects 2024 adjusted EBIT "to be about $10 billion," on the lower end of its previous range of $10 billion to $12 billion.

Ford stock was down over 9% intraday on Tuesday.

In a media call with reporters, Ford Vice Chair and CFO John Lawler cited "supplier disruptions" as the reason for lower sales in Ford Pro and Ford Blue businesses. Lawler elaborated that some of the disruptions were due to the impact of hurricanes in the southern US.

"Costs, especially warranty, has held back our earnings power, but as we bend that curve, there is significant financial upside for investors," Ford CEO Jim Farley added on the analyst conference call.

As part of its Ford+ plan, Ford divided its business into three units: Ford Blue for the traditional gas-powered business, Ford Model e for the electric vehicle division, and Ford Pro for its commercial and super duty truck business. Here's what Ford reported in Q3 for those business units:

  • Ford Blue: $26.2 billion in revenue, $1.627 billion in EBIT

  • Model e: $1.2 billion in revenue, -$1.224 billion in EBIT

  • Ford Pro: $15.7 billion in revenue, $1.814 billion in EBIT

Ford said it expected full-year Model e losses to be about $5 billion, slightly lower than the $5.5 billion previously projected. Farley sees improvement coming via where and how the company produces its batteries.

"To be specific on the cost, we really expect next year and the following years, a lot of progress in the production tax credit for our first-gen products. That's really one of the key levers for us. As we've been able to pretty quietly restructure our sourcing of our batteries, where they come from, who makes them to really maximize the PTC, and that will drive a lot of cost down for our existing products," Farley said on the analyst conference call.

Ford’s Q3 US deliveries, reported earlier this month, jumped 4.3% year over year to 504,039 vehicles, though they are still down compared to the 536,050 delivered last quarter. Ford said EV sales jumped 12% year over year, powered by the Ford Lightning pickup and Ford E-transit van. Ford hybrid vehicles, led by the Maverick pickup, surged 38% year over year.

FILE - A line of unsold 2024 Mustang Mach-E electric utility vehicles sit at a Ford dealership May 19, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)

A line of unsold 2024 Mustang Mach-E electric utility vehicles sit at a Ford dealership May 19, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

GM, on the other hand, has raised its guidance each quarter this year and now sees adjusted EBIT of $14 billion to $15 billion ($13 billion-$15 billion previously), among other metrics.

GM also announced $16 billion in buybacks and share repurchases over the past year, whereas Ford has not thus far.

Conversely, GM projects it will achieve EV profitability on a positive variable profit margin basis by the end of this year, whereas Ford said it only sees real profitability with the coming of its second-gen EVs. Ford will give a full update on its EV business outlook and profitability in the first half of next year.

Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.

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