Chipotle shares drop after Q3 sales miss Wall Street estimates
10/30/2024 04:02Chipotle falls just short of Wall Street's high hopes for the burrito chain as sales miss expectations.
Chipotle (CMG) investors are digesting Q3 results that missed Wall Street's sales estimates after a string of winning quarters.
The burrito chain reported $2.78 billion in revenue on Tuesday, up 13% year over year but under the expected $2.82 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus data. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.27 was a 17.4% jump from a year ago, and beat estimates of $0.25.
Same-store sales grew 6%, missing estimates of 6.38%. Its shares dropped 5% after market close.
In the release, interim CEO Scott Boatwright said its food, service, and the return of smoked brisket led to "another quarter of strong results."
The results come as investors are awaiting the naming of a permanent CEO, after former head honcho Brian Niccol was poached by Starbucks (SBUX) in August.
Speed of service initiatives on Chipotle's make line is yielding results, per Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan in a note to clients. In Q2, Niccol said the company was using improved tools and training to increase throughput and optimize "cadence of digital orders during peak periods."
Adding expo — a crew member between salsa and cash register who helps expedite the bagging and payment process — helped add five more orders in a restaurant's peak 15 minutes. Right now, a little over half of locations have been able to staff the position. Setyan believes that those five more orders could lead to a roughly 1% sales growth.
He also said near- and medium-term transaction growth drivers include maturing new units, customers joining the loyalty program, and increased marketing.
Chipotle ended Q3 with 3,184 location. In the quarter, it added 86 locations with 73 containing a drive through. It expects to open 285 to 315 new locations this year, and 315 to 345 in 2025 — less than the 358 Wall Street expected.
Long term, it plans to operate 7,000 restaurants in North America. As it expands, it's been investing in promoting from within.
Wall Street is also keeping an eye out for ongoing ingredient inflation that could potentially justify another price increase in Q4, TD Cowen Andrew Charles wrote in a note to clients prior to results.
Food, beverage , and packaging costs increased nearly 30% from a year ago, driven by higher costs of avocado and dairy. Plus, the company said there was a "higher usage of ingredients" in the quarter after it "focused on ensuring consistent and generous portions." The company said this was partially offset by menu price increases last year.
Labor costs made up nearly 25% of total revenue, in line with last year. "The benefit from sales leverage was offset primarily by wage increases for our restaurants in California" following the FAST ACT, the company said.
Scott Boatwright is expected by many Wall Street pros to be named CEO permanently. He joined Chipotle as COO in 2017, after a 10-year stint at Arby's.
If Boatwright secures the top job, he'll likely keep Chipotle on the same path.
"We are a high-growth organization, both from same-restaurant sales as well as new-restaurant development, and we need purpose-driven, passionate people for us to hit our long-term goals," he told Yahoo Finance shortly before being named interim CEO.
Here's what Chipotle posted for its Q3 results, compared to Wall Street estimates per Bloomberg consensus data:
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Revenue: $2.78 billion versus $2.82 billion
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Adjusted earnings per share: $0.27 versus $0.25
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Same-store sales growth: 6.0% versus 6.38%
For 2024, the company reiterated that it expects sales growth of mid- to high-single digits for the full year, which was up from the previous guidance of mid-single-digit growth set in Q4 of last fiscal year.
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Brooke DiPalma is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at [email protected].