Orange juice futures soar as Cola-Cola prepares for higher costs
10/30/2024 19:07Your morning cup of orange juice may cost you more in the near future.
Your morning cup of orange juice may cost you more in the near future.
Frozen orange juice prices (OJF25.NYB, OJ=F) hit a record closing high of $494.30 on Friday before drifting lower on Tuesday and settling at $483.25. Compared to a year ago, the cost of orange juice concentrate is up more than 60%. Since 2020, the price is up nearly 200% as a hotter climate puts citrus in short supply.
Orange juice supplies "remain tight" and prices are expected to remain higher, David Branch of Wells Fargo told Yahoo Finance over the phone.
"I don't see it [prices] coming down until we have another crop year," he said. The impact of weather has taken a toll on Brazil, which produces roughly 75% of global orange juice exports.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, production in Brazil is down 9% to 1.1 million tons due to drought and extremely high temperatures caused in part by the El Niño climate pattern and, in some cases, citrus greening, a bacterial disease transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid insect.
The climate led to smaller fruit size, and higher temperatures coupled with 31% less rain in August also accelerated the ripening of the oranges by one to three months. That forced producers to "pick their supply faster." The combination of factors is leading to an estimated 30% year-over-year fall in Brazil's citrus production, per Branch.
On top of that, demand for orange juice soared during the COVID-19 pandemic and has stuck around, leading to the perfect storm.
"That surge in demand reduced the juice inventories of most producers ... When it shot up, they were reducing their inventories," Branch said. "Combined with this current decline in OJ production globally is what's really creating this increase in these future prices."
Companies with orange juice in their portfolio are already preparing for the impact. Take Coca-Cola (KO), which has the Simply Orange brand under its umbrella.
"The agriculture commodities ... that’s where we’re seeing the most pressure for a couple of different reasons," Coca-Cola CFO John Murphy told Yahoo Finance over the phone following its Q3 results.
"Orange juice is a big part of our portfolio, particularly in North America, and orange juice supply, and hence pricing, stays volatile, and we expect higher prices going into next year."
Murphy said on the earnings call that, overall, 2025 is expected to be a much "more normalized pricing environment" outside of agricultural costs.
Other sticky challenges for Coca-Cola are coffee and packaging.