Starbucks posts disappointing Q4 results as new CEO Brian Niccol looks to return to the basics

10/31/2024 03:19
Starbucks posts disappointing Q4 results as new CEO Brian Niccol looks to return to the basics

The coffee chain is hitting a low point as earnings miss estimates across the board.

Starbucks (SBUX) CEO Brian Niccol is looking to set the table for its next chapter as Wall Street drinks in another abysmal quarter.

On Wednesday afternoon, the coffee chain reported final Q4 results that missed key metrics across the board, from same store sales and revenue to adjusted earnings per share. In a surprise, the company released preliminary Q4 results last week.

Niccol, who took the helm in September, acknowledged that the company is at a low point. "It is clear we need to fundamentally change our strategy to win back customers," he said in the release. He has been trying to refocus the company with his "Back to Starbucks" plan, which calls for a return to basics, better pricing, and faster service.

CFO Rachel Ruggeri, who has been with Starbucks since 2021, said the results "do not reflect the strength" of Starbucks and is "confidence in our ability to turn around our business," per the release.

In the quarter, revenue fell 3% year over year to $9.1 billion, while adjusted earnings per share fell 25% to $0.80.

Global same-store sales fell 7%, compared to the nearly 4% the Street anticipated. Starbucks China's same-store sales fell 14%, with a 6% drop in foot traffic and an 8% decline in the average ticket size. The company attributed the performance to "intensified competition and a soft macro environment that impacted consumer spending" in the preliminary results.

In North America, same store sales dropped 6% as foot traffic delined 10%.

"The traffic number that we saw out of Starbucks in the US was aside from the pandemic, the worst number we've ever seen, even worse than the Financial Crisis," BTIG analyst Peter Saleh told Yahoo Finance following the preliminary results.

"I don't know if this is a pricing problem. In my mind, I don't think it is. I think... this is a messaging problem, probably a throughput problem. I think they're working hard on the marketing."

Investors are hopeful this is as bad it gets.

"We think this will be the bottom, the time in which they lap the pressure on the business last year," Guggenheim Restaurants Equity Research Analyst Gregory Francfort told Yahoo Finance. Francfort said the company's growth ambitions may have to take a back seat for the near future as it focuses on employee culture.

Following the preliminary results, in a video posted on Starbucks' site, Niccol reemphasized some of the key issues he outlined in a letter during his first week, including the need to simplify its menu, fix its value perception, and build return customers.

"We're fundamentally changing our marketing. We’ve been focusing on Starbucks Rewards customers, rather than talking to all our customers. We’re changing quickly, as you likely have already seen," said Niccol, known in his career for his marketing expertise.

Starbucks Reward members increased 4% year-over-year to 33.8 million in Q4, in line with Q2. It has yet to return to the 34.3 million in Q1.

Here's what Starbucks reported, compared to Wall Street estimates based on Bloomberg consensus data:

Revenue: $9.1 billion versus $9.33 billion

Adjusted earnings per share: $0.80 versus $1.00

Same-store sales: -7% versus -3.99%

  • North America and US: -6% versus -3.55%

  • International: -9% versus -5.48%

    • China: -14% versus -10.72%

Foot traffic: -8% versus -6.32%

  • North America and US: -10% versus -6.16%

  • International: -4% versus -5.67%

Ticket Growth: 2% versus 1.69%

  • North America and US: 4% versus 2.29%

  • International: -5.00% versus -0.50%

    • China: -8% versus -5.29%

The company has suspended its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance, allowing time to re-strategize under Niccol.

Brooke DiPalma is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at [email protected].

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