Apple to report Q4 earnings as Wall Street looks for signs of Apple Intelligence payoff

10/31/2024 19:36
Apple to report Q4 earnings as Wall Street looks for signs of Apple Intelligence payoff

Apple will report its Q4 earnings after the bell on Thursday, as Wall Street looks for signs that Apple Intelligence is helping to power iPhone sales.

Apple (AAPL) will announce its fourth quarter earnings on Thursday as Wall Street looks for clues as to whether the company’s Apple Intelligence platform is juicing iPhone sales or not. Apple launched the artificial intelligence platform via software updates for its iPhone, iPad, and Mac on Monday, but the company has been advertising it for far longer, especially for the iPhone.

But Apple Intelligence isn’t available to everyone. It’s notably only available in US English to start. The company will add localized English support in December and additional languages in April.

The software is also only compatible with the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max, as well as the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro lines, which means users with older phones will need to upgrade to access the platform. And the hope, at least for Apple and its investors, is that the move will help spark a new iPhone sales supercycle.

For the quarter, Wall Street expects Apple to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.59 on revenue of $94.3 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. The company saw EPS of $1.46 on revenue of $89.4 billion during the same period last year.

Apple’s iPhone sales are expected to total $45 billion, up 2.8% versus Q4 2023, while the company’s Services business is expected to top out at $25.2 billion. That’s a 13% year-over-year increase from the $22.3 billion the segment brought in in Q4 2023.

Analysts also predict the iPad segment will grow 9.7% to $7 billion but anticipate a 1.6% year-over-year decline in Apple’s wearables business revenue to $9.1 billion.

Apple’s Greater China revenue, meanwhile, is expected to improve 4.7% to $15.8 billion, versus a decline of 2.5% in the same period last year.

Apple’s fourth quarter only accounts for a sliver of yearly sales of its latest iPhone. That’s because the phones typically hit the market just weeks before the official end of the financial period. But there’s fear that iPhone wait times, the amount of time it takes for a person who orders a phone to finally receive it, are down year over year.

The Apple iPhone 16 is displayed at the Apple Fifth Avenue store on Sept. 20, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Pamela Smith, File)

The Apple iPhone 16 is displayed at the Apple Fifth Avenue store on Sept. 20, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Pamela Smith, File) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

What’s more, TF International Securities' Ming-Chi Kuo reported last week that Apple cut iPhone 16 orders by some 10 million units for the period between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025. It doesn’t help that Apple no longer provides total iPhone sales numbers in its earnings reports, so analysts have to go off supporting data to figure out how many iPhones the company sold.

Barclays Equity Research’s Tim Long wrote in a note to investors that late-cycle iPhone 15 growth and Services strength could help power Apple to a beat in the Q4, but that he sees more downside than upside to Barclays’ estimate that the company would sell 79 million iPhone units in Q1.

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