Key Fed inflation gauge shows price increases match expectations in September

10/31/2024 19:59
Key Fed inflation gauge shows price increases match expectations in September

Thursday's release is the final look at inflation before the Fed's next policy decision on Nov. 7.

The latest reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed that prices increased largely in line with Wall Street's expectations in September.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out the cost of food and energy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.3% from the prior month during September, in line with Wall Street's expectations for 0.3% but above the 0.1% reading seen in August.

Over the prior year, prices rose 2.7% in September, above Wall Street's expectations for 2.6% and in line with the 2.7% seen in August. On a yearly basis, overall PCE increased 2.1%, its slowest pace since February 2021.

The report comes just one week before the Federal Reserve will dole out its next policy decision. After cutting rates by half a percentage point in September, markets have priced in a roughly 96% chance the central bank opts for a smaller 25 basis point interest rate cut on Nov. 7, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Thursday's reading on inflation follows up September's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed prices rose at their lowest annual headline rate since February 2021.

Inflation's path lower has coincided with resilient economic growth data. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% during the third quarter. Economists argued that data showed the economy is on solid footing as the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate easing cycle.

Another major check on the health of the economy looms Friday with the October jobs report. Consensus expects the US economy added 101,000 jobs in October, a move lower from the 254,000 jobs added in September.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference in Washington, D.C., the United States, on Sept. 18, 2024. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday slashed interest rates by 50 basis points amid cooling inflation and a weakening labor market, marking the first rate cut in over four years. (Photo by Hu Yousong/Xinhua via Getty Images)

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference in Washington, D.C., the United States, on Sept. 18, 2024. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday slashed interest rates by 50 basis points amid cooling inflation and a weakening labor market, marking the first rate cut in over four years. (Photo by Hu Yousong/Xinhua via Getty Images) · Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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