• The tight presidential race means the election could move BTC by $6,000 to $8,000, Amberdata's Greg Magadini estimates.

• DEX traders anticipate a bigger swing in ether.

• Market participants position for bullish volatility.

Crypto traders awaiting a surge in bitcoin {{BTC}} price volatility may soon have it their way as derivatives experts suggest the impending U.S. presidential election could trigger price swings matching the dramatic movements of early August.

"I expect a +1.5-Sigma ($6,000 to $8,000 price range) as a result of the post-election price reaction," Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at crypto data tracking platform Amberdata, told CoinDesk.

The projection is based on the annualized forward volatility of 112% derived from the Nov. 6 options trading on Deribit, which suggests a price fluctuation of $4,000 in either direction. A positive 1.5-sigma of that translates to a price swing in the range of $6,000 to $8,000.

Bitcoin last saw a similar price swing in early August when the unwinding of the so-called risk-on yen carry traders led to broad-based risk aversion, sending BTC down to $50,000.

Magadini assumes 1.5-sigma volatility because the latest reports show Republican candidate Donald Trump, perceived to be crypto-friendly, and his rival Democrat Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race in seven swing states.

The 50-50 odds indicate that an eventual outcome is unlikely to surprise markets, irrespective of who wins, implying a low probability of a positive 3-sigma move (three standard deviations from the mean in a normal distribution) looks unlikely. A positive 3-sigma move indicates an extreme event.

Similarly, a sub negative 1-sigma move or minimal price action looks doubtful, as 50-50 odds mean traders won't be able to price the election outcome in advance. The election is due Tuesday, with results expected on Friday.

Recall that volatility is bi-directional, meaning expected price swings could happen in either direction. That said, options traders have been preparing for bullish volatility, purchasing calls at $70,000, $85,000, and $90,000 strikes on Deribit and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. (A $8,000 surge from BTC going market rate of $68,800 would mean new record highs.)

As such, call options are trading pricier than puts in terms of volatility in a sign of bullish sentiment, according to Joshua Lim, co-founder of crypto derivatives trading firm and liquidity provider Arbelos Markets.

"Bitcoin call options are repricing higher, even while spot price ticks lower this weekend due to surprisingly weak polls for Trump," Lim said.