Ripple’s XRP has maintained a downward trend since early October. This decline began after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it would appeal a federal judge’s ruling in its case against the payments service provider. 

Due to this price drop, XRP’s supply held in profit has hit its lowest level since July. This analysis explores the potential for a continued decline in the token’s value. 

Ripple Holders Count Their Losses

On October 2, the SEC filed its notice of appeal, seeking to overturn the court’s ruling that programmatic sales of XRP to retail investors did not constitute a violation of securities laws. The regulator then submitted its appeal on October 10, prompting Ripple to announce its plans to file a cross-appeal of its own.

These developments have exerted downward pressure on XRP’s price over the past month. It trades at $0.50 at press time, shedding 6% of its value since October 2. 

This price decline has led to a drop in the percentage of XRP’s supply held in profit. According to Santiment’s data, this figure now stands at 70.4% — its lowest since July 12. For context, this metric was 90% at the beginning of October, before the SEC’s notice of appeal.

Read more: XRP ETF Explained: What It Is and How It Works

When an asset’s supply in profit drops, fewer holders are currently holding it at a profit compared to when they acquired it. This decline often correlates with a drop in the asset’s price, as in XRP’s case. As more holders face losses, selling pressure may rise, particularly if token holders aim to cut further losses.

XRP’s declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflects a sustained increase in selling pressure. Currently sitting at 38.77, this indicator — used to assess whether an asset is oversold or overbought — suggests that selling activity has outpaced buying among traders.

XRP Price Prediction: One Way to Stop the Decline

XRP’s price drop has pushed it below the critical support floor at $0.52. As of this writing, the altcoin is trading at $0.50, and with buying pressure waning, XRP risks extending its decline.

Readings from its Fibonacci Retracement tool suggest that the altcoin may attempt to test the $0.46 support level. If the bulls fail to defend it, XRP may plummet to its July 5 low of $0.38.

Read more: Ripple (XRP) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

However, a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish would invalidate this bearish projection. If this happens, XRP’s price may attempt to break above $0.52, with a successful move past this level setting it on a path to trade above $0.60.