Trump has billions riding on whether he wins
11/05/2024 02:35
Trump is the ultimate election "whale," with as much as $5.7 billion riding on whether he wins or not.
An investor dubbed the “French whale” has sparked fascination with his lavish bets on the outcome of this year’s US presidential election. Fredi9999, as one of his accounts is known, is wagering at least $30 million that Donald Trump will win in the Polymarket prediction market.
That’s peanuts compared with what may be the biggest bet of all on the 2024 election, which is what Trump himself stands to gain — or lose. Through his ownership stake in Trump Media and Technology Group, the stakes for Trump amount to at least $4 billion, which is more than all the presidential election bets on Polymarket combined.
Trump Media, known by its ticker symbol, DJT, is broadly viewed as the one financial asset serving as a binary bet on whether Trump wins or loses the presidential race. If Trump wins, DJT, which houses the Truth Social networking app, could gain a surge of users and revenue, making it a viable social media network able to compete with the likes of X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. But if Trump loses, DJT’s already weak financials could erode further, threatening the whole business. Some investors think the stock could go to 0, imperiling the company.
Shares of DJT have been wildly volatile during the last two months, surging or crashing based on market perceptions of whether Trump is likely to win. There’s a tight correlation between Trump’s odds in betting markets and the direction of DJT shares.
In mid-September, for instance, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris pulled ahead of Trump in betting markets. DJT shares sank and closed September at $12.15, the lowest level since the company went public back in March.
Then Trump’s election odds improved, hitting 64% in the Real Clear Politics aggregate on Oct. 29. On the same day, DJT closed at $51.51, a 324% gain from its September low. There was no company news during that time indicating any sort of improvement in the company’s financial or operating performance, which is weak.
During the last few days, Trump’s election odds have fallen to around 55%, while DJT shares have slipped to about $31. Polls show the two candidates are essentially tied, with Harris possibly benefiting from a wisp of last-second momentum.
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Trump owns 57% of DJT, and the value of his stake has yoyo-ed in proportion to the stock price and his election odds. In July, before Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, DJT’s market value was around $7.7 billion, putting the value of Trump’s portion at about $4.4 billion. At its low point in September, DJT was worth $2.4 billion, with Trump’s share at $1.4 billion. After the October surge, DJT was worth $10 billion, and Trump’s share $5.7 billion.
So from the September bottom to the October top, the value of Trump’s shares varied by $4.3 billion. That’s probably the minimum loss Trump would suffer if he loses the election, because that swing is based on a minimum DJT price of $12.15. If the stock goes to 0, Trump’s losses from peak to trough would be $5.7 billion, the value of his shares as of Oct. 29.
Many investors have been placing “Trump trades” on assets they think will do better or worse if Trump gets elected, including buying DJT stock outright or buying options that could pay off based on future movements in the stock price. Other Trump trades include cryptocurrency, private prisons, and gold. But it’s hard to imagine any single investor other than Trump could have more than $5 billion riding on the election outcome, making Trump the ultimate election whale.
Trump would not be losing $5.7 billion that he actually invested in the company. Trump made little or no financial investment in DJT, instead adding to its value through his personal brand and the attention he’s able to bring to its main product, Truth Social. Other investors plowed as much as $2 billion into the company in its startup phase, however, and they’d lose much of their principal if the stock collapses. If DJT does crater, the company could still operate as a non-public company if somebody bought it or its owners chose to take it private.
Trump would still take a massive financial hit if he loses the election and DJT craters. In late October, with DJT near its peak, Bloomberg estimated Trump’s net worth to be around $6.6 billion, and most of that was his stake in DJT. Without that stake, Trump’s net worth might be around $1 billion. That’s obviously a lot, but much of his wealth is illiquid, and if defeated, Trump would face heavy claims on his wealth long into the future.
Trump is already on the hook for an $83.3 million judgment against him in the E. Jean. Carroll defamation case and for $454 million in a New York fraud trial. Those payments are on pause as Trump appeals them. Trump is still entangled in three criminal cases that could drag on for years as legal bills pile up. Two of those cases are federal cases Trump could have dismissed if he wins the White House — but will likely have to keep fighting if he loses. The third is a Fulton County, Ga., case that Trump can’t close down even if he’s president.
If Trump loses, he would also endure reputational damage as a 78-year-old two-time presidential loser with no obvious next move. Trump stokes his fame, branding power, and fundraising ability by constantly staying in the news and frequently delighting his followers. If he fades into the background, all of that fades with him. All told, it could mark the greatest financial stake ever in the outcome of a presidential election.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @rickjnewman.
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