As the election approaches, the crypto market is abuzz with speculation about how the outcome could impact Bitcoin's trajectory.

Yet, according to a recent report by Bernstein, the leading cryptocurrency is on track to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, independent of who occupies the White House.

"The bitcoin genie is out of the bottle, and it's hard to reverse this course," Bernstein analysts noted.

Rob Hadick, General Partner at Dragonfly, shared similar sentiments in a recent conversation with Coinage. He emphasized that while political events can influence short-term market movements, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is driven by broader macroeconomic factors.

"I actually don't think... the causation here [in the latest rally] is a Trump presidency," Hadick said. "There's a lot more going on, which is right now, over the last couple of months, we've had a significant increase in liquidity and quantitative easing picking back up."

Hadick pointed out that the Federal Reserve's actions, including potential interest rate cuts and increased liquidity, are significant drivers for Bitcoin's price appreciation. "From a macroeconomic perspective, everything is signaling the likelihood of increased exposure to risk assets for large investors," he explained.

Discussing the potential policy differences between the candidates, Hadick acknowledged that there have been "things that have been said that are very categorically different." He noted, "If you look at what the Trump campaign has said, they've said things like there will be a Bitcoin reserve. They've also talked about... potentially protecting Bitcoin miners through the legislature." However, he added, "What that means in actuality relative to Kamala [Harris], it's not unclear to me how far along we get."

Market participants are also closely watching prediction markets like Polymarket, where odds have swung based on recent polls. Over the weekend, polls from Ann Selzer and The New York Times/Siena College showed stronger support for Harris, which Hadick mentioned led to Bitcoin trading down temporarily. "We saw... Bitcoin actually traded down over the weekend," he said. "But at the same time, options pricing was going up... there's just the expectation of more volatility, I think, in a Harris presidency."

Meanwhile, CoinShares' latest report showed inflows into Bitcoin ETFs were un-deterred by all the political swings. Another $2.2 billion flowed into crypto investment products last week, predominantly into Bitcoin ETFs. From a larger economic perspective, momentum is continuing to build, according to Hadick.