Why stocks don't care who's president: Morning Brief
11/05/2024 18:18The stock market hasn't priced in an election winner, and Wall Street hasn't been too concerned with the machinations of the polls by and large. That's because the main factors that drive the S&P 500 won't be changing.
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Despite the chatter about the risks surrounding Americans' trip to the polls on Tuesday, election days aren't historically that bad for the stock market.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose on 8 of the 10 election days the stock market has been open since 1980. If we include both the day of and the day after the election combined, the index has been a bit more fussy, falling half of the time.
A similar story has played out for the month. The S&P 500 has fallen in 5 of the past 10 election Novembers.
But zoom out, and the story improves.
The S&P 500 has been up an average of 10.68% in the year following elections dating back to 1960. That's right in line with the standard average return for the S&P 500 over time. It's one of many signs that while the election could very well bring some turbulence to markets over the next few days, particularly if there isn't a clear winner, it rarely halts the long-term trend.
"We remain mindful that while elections usually spark short-term repricings, the S&P 500 tends to post gains in all balance-of-power scenarios," RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Sunday.
Essentially, elections are no different than other risks to the market, like tensions in the Middle East, natural disasters, or worker strikes. The key question remains what any risk could mean for future company earnings.
And for elections, that means potential policies that could alter the corporate operating environment. Typically that means a split-party government, where fewer sweeping changes are passed, is the ideal backdrop for stocks.
"Checks and balances as a result of differences of opinion at the Congressional level (sometimes dramatically termed 'gridlock') often have served in the past ... to protect what investors care most about — a healthy economy for consumers and for revenue and profit growth for business," Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus wrote in a note to clients on Monday morning.
Analyzing the past few presidential cycles furthers this point. Research from Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner shows the S&P 500 grew at an annualized rate of 13% from the day President Barack Obama was elected to the night Donald Trump was elected.
From the day of the Trump win to when Joe Biden won in 2020, the index grew at an annualized rate of 14%.
Since Biden was elected, the index has averaged a 16% annual return. All three returns are well within the normal range.
Information Technology (XLK) was either the top- or second-best-performing sector in the S&P 500 through all three regimes. Lerner reasoned this was "likely because that's where the earnings growth has been."
In simple terms, who has been in the White House has done little to weigh on the tech bull market of the past 15 years. And no matter what happens Tuesday night, it's not clear that long-term trend is going to end anytime soon.
As Baird market strategist Michael Antonelli told Yahoo Finance, the real driver behind the stock market isn't going to change no matter what happens on Tuesday.
"The reason the stock market goes up over time [is] that the people that work at the companies go to work, make products and services, and shareholders get to benefit from that," Antonelli said. "No matter what happens, no matter who wins, your neighbors are going to work and they are going to work."
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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