5 things financial observers should watch Tuesday night that aren't Trump vs. Harris
11/06/2024 00:07
The next commander in chief could be unknown for many hours (if not days) after the polls close. But that doesn't mean we won't have results this evening that financial observers will be watching closely.
Coin flip odds ahead of today's presidential election could mean that the next commander in chief won't be known for many hours (if not days) after the polls close this evening.
But that doesn't mean we won't have results tonight that financial observers will be watching closely.
A series of contests could be settled early that may set the course for economic policymaking in 2025, affecting everything from the leadership of key Congressional committees to the sway that certain industries like cryptocurrencies will have in Washington, D.C.
Here are five threads to watch while we wait for the full results of the big contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump to be tabulated:
Read more: What the 2024 campaign means for your wallet: The Yahoo Finance guide to the presidential election
Early in the night, as soon as the first polls begin to close at 6 pm ET, election exit polls are quickly set to begin being publicly available.
These are tallies of actual voters as they vote with absentee and early voters accounted for by either telephone polls or in-person polling at early voting locations.
The results are likely to offer new insights into Americans' opinions on a wide array of issues, including the economy.
Four years ago, exit pollsters asked about things like the condition of the nation's economy, voters' financial situation and whether citizens believe life for the next generation of Americans will be better or worse.
How voters answer this time around — and how different it is from 2020 — could begin to answer whether America's foul economic mood is beginning to lessen or will remain a dominant feature in the years ahead.
There could also be some clues tonight about the lasting power of the crypto community in the nation's capital.
Trump has made outsized promises to that community during his run, and a reported $160 million in spending by cryptocurrency firms has sent millions that could be decisive in lower-tier races around the country.
This is an audacious series of bets that, if successful, could provide the basis for a new (and bipartisan) class of crypto-friendly lawmakers across the House and Senate.
It's a dynamic that has raised concerns in some corners already. "We've never seen spending like this," said Democratic Rep. Summer Lee said in a recent webinar on the influence of the industry calling crypto the latest participant in an "unfettered arms race."
Either way, more than a dozen new pro-crypto congressmen and women could be headed to Washington next year if they win and that could help reshape an ongoing debate about whether (and how) Congress needs to step in to regulate the industry.
These deep pocketed groups have sent money to candidates of both parties, from Alaska to upstate New York, and appear likely to help usher in what is already being called the most-crypto friendly Congress ever in 2025.
And its influence could continue after Election Day, with Politico reporting this week that at least one cryptocurrency super PAC is keeping $78 million in the bank past Tuesday — apparently to keep lawmakers focused on their preferred issues.
One Senate race in particular is likely being closely watched by banking CEOs like JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) Jamie Dimon.
That is the contest in Ohio between Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and his challenger Bernie Moreno. It's a contest that could determine both control of the Senate in 2025 as well as who is atop the crucial Senate banking, housing, and urban affairs committee.
That committee, which Brown currently leads, has oversight of big banks and has been the scene of highly anticipated hearings in recent years with CEOs forced to answer questions from lawmakers on a range of topics.
Who sits center stage across from these CEOs in 2025, whether it's Brown or a more friendly figure like current ranking member Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina will be keenly watched.
Some voters will have the opportunity on Tuesday to cast their thoughts on cannabis as well.
Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Florida voters have marijuana measures on the ballot. And voters in Massachusetts will be able to decide about going further and possibly legalizing psychedelics.
The bill in Florida, as one example, would legalize recreational marijuana use for all adults in the state. It's already legal in Florida for medical reasons and is already known as the most lucrative medical cannabis market in the US.
The results in Florida and elsewhere would contribute further to a patchwork of marijuana laws around the country and could also determine whether long awaited changes at the national level are any closer to reality.
Efforts at legalizing cannabis banking have long been stalled in Washington D.C., with the SAFE Banking Act stuck in Congress for years. But increasing state-level acceptance of "legitimate" cannabis-related business could further open the door to those efforts.
The fight for control of Congress overall might end up taking just as long as the presidency — and it could be just as important on certain issues.
Two of Washington's major debates in 2025 will be over taxes and green energy. In both cases, a President Trump or Harris could see nearly all their promises on these fronts stall if they are negotiating with either a House or Senate controlled by the opposition party.
"The composition of Congress is critical," said Charles Myers, the chairman and founder of Signum Global Advisors, in a recent interview on tax issues.
He said a divided Washington is the most likely outcome and will quickly force a massive lowering of expectations no matter who wins.
Indeed, a split decision appears highly possible. A consensus forecast compiled by 270toWin finds Republicans in a position to take at least 51 seats, and therefore control.
Over in the House, it's an even split — with 21 tossup seats likely to decide who wields the speaker's gavel next year.
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
Every Friday, Yahoo Finance's Rachelle Akuffo, Rick Newman, and Ben Werschkul bring you a unique look at how US policy and government affect your bottom line on Capitol Gains. Watch or listen to Capitol Gains on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
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