American voters gave Donald Trump a commanding victory, powered in large part by an intense voter focus on inflation that has been evident for years.

But Trump's key campaign promise of new tariffs and a “mass deportation” of undocumented immigrants could put new upward pressure on prices, the very issue that appears to have powered him to a win.

A note from Capital Economics late Tuesday night crystallized some of the macroeconomic worries. The authors wrote that they expected Trump to push forward on his proposed immigration curbs and tariffs. They said that as a result, “We are minded to reduce our GDP growth forecast ... by roughly 1% and add 1% to our inflation forecast over the same period.”

Read here for more about what Trump could mean on the key economic issue of price pressures, as well as taxes.

US stock futures surged as investors digested Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election over Kamala Harris.

A recent call in the state of Wisconsin in favor of Trump by the Associated Press on Wednesday morning confirmed the victory.

After a steady rally in stock futures overnight as Harris' path to victory narrowed, futures tied to the three major averages built on earlier jumps on the news.

As of 6:00 a.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) and S&P 500 futures (ES=F) each soared around 1.6% and 2.3%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up around 2.9% on the heels of a winning day for stocks.

Meanwhile, futures tied to the small-cap Russell 2000 index (RTY=F) were up more than 6.5%.

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is pushing higher as investors bet on a faster pace of inflation under new Trump tariffs, and a slower pace of interest rate cuts from the Fed.

“Overall though we think that a Trump win means higher inflation in the near-term versus the status quo with Harris, but slower growth (potentially shaving up to 0.5 percentage points off of GDP in 2025 and 2026). For FOMC policy, we think the Fed will continue to ease this year, but likely take a pause in the first half of 2025 as it waits to get a better sense of the impact of the new administration's policies on inflation and growth,” TD’s head of global strategy Rich Kelley said.

The 10-year yield was up 14 basis points to around 4.26% early on Wednesday.

For now, markets are taking this move in yields in stride. But keep in mind this is a market that loves prospects of more rate cuts. If that thesis gets pushed aside under Trump as tariffs spur new inflation, markets could recalibrate to the downside.

Tesla (TSLA) shares are surging 13% in premarket trading as Donald Trump looks to be on the verge of winning the presidency again.

A win could put Tesla CEO Elon Musk in pole position to shape the EV maker's future, given his strong backing of Trump — or at least, that is how Wall Street sees it early on.

Says Wedbush analyst and Tesla bull Dan Ives in a note:

For more on Tesla's roadmap under a potential Trump presidency, here is our chat on the topic on a recent episode of my Opening Bid podcast.

Donald Trump took the stage in Palm Beach, Fl. in the early morning hours on Wednesday as he neared closer to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidential election.

"This is a movement like nobody’s ever seen before," he told the crowd in what sounded like a victory speech. "[This is] forever the day the American people regained control of their country."

The Associated Press has not officially called the election. So far, Trump has secured 267 votes compared to Kamala Harris's 224.

US stock futures soared as the results of the US presidential election all but confirmed a Donald Trump victory over Kamala Harris.

The former president secured North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, three critical swing states, according to the Associated Press (AP). Results from Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan remain unclear.

Per the AP, Trump is just 3 electoral college votes short of clinching the win.

As of 2:30 a.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) and S&P 500 futures (ES=F) each jumped around 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up over 2.0%.

Republicans have won control of the Senate, the Associated Press projected early Wednesday.

The GOP flipped a Democratic-held seat in West Virginia, as Republican Jim Justice won the open seat. In Ohio, meanwhile, Bernie Moreno unseated Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, and Democrats lost a key member of their coalition in the upper chamber (as my colleague Ben Werschkul detailed earlier in the blog).

Seven seats hang in the balance, with Republicans looking for more gains. They are eyeing a pickup in Montana, where incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. Races in the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona remain too close to call. Democrats currently hold all those seats.

Head over to the Yahoo News live blog for more election insights and updates.

As US stock futures climbed late Tuesday, futures tied to the small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RTY=F) were the star performer, rising as much as 3% to outpace their larger peers as investors bet on the likelihood that Donald Trump will win the presidential election.

Companies within the index, which include regional banks and smaller domestic players, are expected to benefit from anticipated policies out of the Trump administration like lower taxes and cutting regulations.

Tariffs that a Trump administration would also be expected to enact pushed the dollar higher overnight Tuesday, a benefit for small-cap companies that tend to be more levered to the domestic economy compared to more internationally oriented large-cap stocks.

GOP challenger Bernie Moreno has defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, according to the Associated Press.

It’s a victory that almost surely means Republicans will take control of the Senate in 2025, but one that also has consequences for the crucial Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs committee.

That committee, which Brown currently leads, has been the scene of closely watched hearings in recent years, with top CEOs like JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) Jamie Dimon and Bank of America’s (BAC) Brian Moynihan forced to answer questions from lawmakers on a range of topics.

Those hearings will surely continue in 2025 but now likely with a friendly lawmaker kicking off the questioning.

The current GOP ranking member on that committee is Sen. Tim Scott. The South Carolinian has tended to be much friendlier to bank concerns, especially around banking regulations.

It’s a handover that could have a keen impact on policy, especially if Donald Trump ends up winning back the White House. One top concern over the last year has been the proposed Basel III endgame requirements that would increase the reserve requirements on banks.

Scott has often criticized the proposal, including leading a call on the Biden administration to withdraw it entirely.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices jumped to all-time highs late Tuesday as bets on Donald Trump accelerated in prediction markets.

The former president has captured 198 electoral college votes compared to Kamala Harris's 112, according to the latest calls from the Associated Press.

Bitcoin prices soared over 8% to trade around $74,200 a token — leaping past its previous record of around $73,750 a coin on March 14.

Other crypto-adjacent names moved in tandem with bitcoin. Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) moved over 4% higher in after-hours trading while Coinbase (COIN) shares rose over 3%.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies like dogecoin (DOGE-USD) and Ripple (XRP-USD) also jumped on the developments, rising 30% and 5%, respectively.

The Trump trade is rallying, with the US dollar (DX=F), bitcoin (BTC-USD), and equity futures all pushing higher as Trump secured 178 electoral college votes compared to Harris's 99, according to the latest calls from the Associated Press.

Decision Desk HQ, a private company that projects election results, projected Trump to also win North Carolina, a key swing state.

Bitcoin prices extended gains by over 7% to trade above $72,800, while the US dollar rose to its highest level since July. Against other currencies like the Japanese yen and the Mexican peso, the US dollar is up over 1%.

Near 9:40 p.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) rose about 1.1%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) also jumped over 1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up about 1.2%.

Political betting markets made a limited move toward Donald Trump early in what is expected to be a long election night.

As of 9:15 p.m. ET, the odds on Kalshi.com, a political prediction market open to US citizens, stood at 68% in Trump’s favor, projecting he would win about 2 out of 3 hypothetical contests.

The odds were similar on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, sitting at 72.4% at 9:15 p.m. ET.

It was a noticeable — but far from definite — jump on both sites from the odds earlier in the night before the polls closed when both markets showed Trump's odd about 10 percentage points lower.

The surge in these markets was most evident a bit after 7:30 p.m. ET. Gains for Trump noticeably leveled off and largely held steady throughout the 8 p.m. hour.

Both sites are continuing to accept bets throughout the night, with Kalshi touting that their main market now has over $280 million at stake.

Citi analysts detailed “election trades to track," and YF's Rick Newman highlighted seven of them: solar energy, fossil fuels, deregulation, tariffs, inflation, antitrust, and housing.

A reminder that while stocks don't care who the president is, and mostly like certainty, the election results will have implications across industries. Read more here.

Tesla (TSLA) stock rose 3% in after-hours trading as election results continued to pour in Tuesday night.

More results are expected to be announced in the coming hours.

Tech billionaire Musk, who serves as the CEO of Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX and also owns social media platform X (formerly Twitter), has been outspoken about his support of Trump ahead of the election.

Trump has even said he would consider a Cabinet position for Musk but that the businessman likely would not be able to serve "with all the things he's got going on."

Intelligent Alpha CEO and founder Doug Clinton told Yahoo Finance's Market Domination on Tuesday that "it will be a very interesting night for Elon Musk."

"He's obviously made a really big bet on the election going one direction," said Clinton, who is also managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. "I think if it goes against him — if Kamala Harris is elected president — I think it probably is a negative for him."

It's possible Tesla could still benefit from a Harris presidency, given she could provide further tax incentives for electric vehicles as part of a continuation of Biden's green energy push.

As a result, if Trump loses, Musk could likely "find some way to try to mend fences," Clinton said.

"Elon probably has done more for bringing sustainable energy into the markets, kind of into the mass markets, really in the US and globally than maybe anybody else in the world," he said.

Tesla shares are up about 1% since the start of the year.

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could come down to coin-flip odds and may not be known for hours (if not days).

But that doesn't mean there aren't a lot of results that could sway markets. Everything from which party will lead key congressional committees to the sway that certain industries like cryptocurrencies will have in Washington, D.C., are also on the ballot.

Curious what races Jamie Dimon and crypto executives will be watching most closely? Read on here.

A lot of folks on the Street I have chatted up this week are bracing for a big move in markets Wednesday morning, as the belief is that the winner of the election will be known later on tonight. Moreover, either winner would be seen as a surprise for markets (weird how these things are viewed by investors). Take that with a grain of salt, as such groupthink could mean we don't get a big move in markets on Wednesday.

Amid the action, I would keep a close eye on bond yields, as markets could very well take their direction from them, based on my conversations. It's a point the Goldman Sachs team made today in a note making the rounds this evening:

"The upcoming US elections could drive further upward pressure on global bond yields and indigestion for equities," said Goldman Sachs strategist Andrea Ferrario.

Ferrario added, "Rising bond yields might eventually become a speed limit for equities if real yields start to increase (vs. real GDP growth expectations) or if increases in bond yields are too rapid."

Futures moved firmly into green figures on Tuesday evening as early results from the US presidential election rolled in while cryptocurrencies surged and the US dollar also gained.

Near 8 p.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) rose 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) moved roughly 0.5% higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up about 0.7%.

The price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) was also up as much as 4.5% to trade north of $71,000. The dollar was also stronger against most major currency pairs, including the yen and euro.

So far, Trump has won Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Florida, Tennessee, and Indiana, while Harris has claimed Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, and Massachusetts, according to the Associated Press.

Trump Media & Technology Group stock (DJT) surged more than 20% in after-hours trading on Tuesday as early votes showed Trump clinch Kentucky and Indiana.

The stock had a wild session during market hours after trading was halted several times due to volatility. Shares somewhat recovered from steeper losses but still closed down a little over 1%.

Shortly after the market close, DJT reported third quarter results that revealed a net loss of $19.25 million for the quarter ending Sept. 30. The company also reported revenue of $1.01 million, a slight year-over-year drop compared to the $1.07 million it reported in the third quarter of 2023.

Read more here.

via Colin Campbell of Yahoo News:

Democrats hold a 51-49 edge in the Senate. To hold onto the majority in the chamber, Democrats will need 51 seats if Donald Trump wins or 50 seats if Kamala Harris is the victor. This will be a difficult path for Democrats because the key Senate races are largely fought on Republican-friendly territory, and the national party has already conceded the West Virginia seat held by outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin.

Here are the races most observers are following:

Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) vs. former TV anchor Kari Lake (R)
Florida: Sen. Rick Scott (R) vs. former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
Maryland: Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) vs. Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D)
Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. former Rep. Mike Rogers (R)
Missouri: Sen. Josh Hawley (R) vs. Marine veteran Lucas Kunce (D)
Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Navy SEAL veteran Tim Sheehy (R)
Nebraska: Sen. Deb Fischer (R) vs. union leader Dan Osborn (I)
Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) vs. Army veteran Sam Brown (R)
Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) vs. businessman Bernie Moreno (R)
Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey (D) vs. businessman Dave McCormick (R)
Texas: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) vs. Rep. Colin Allred (D)
Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. businessman Eric Hovde (R)

Check out the Yahoo News liveblog >

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk confirmed Tuesday evening that he’ll be spending election night with Donald Trump as the results come in.

“I'm headed to Florida,” he said on a livestream on X, formerly Twitter, early Tuesday evening. “I’ll just be there with President Trump and JD [Vance] and a bunch of other cool people,” he added. The comment confirmed an earlier New York Times report that Musk would he headed to Florida this evening.

It’s the latest example of Musk’s extraordinarily close links with Trump in the final stages of the campaign after the world's richest man spent over $130 million with the aim of returning former President Trump to office.

At a recent closely watched Madison Square Garden rally in New York City, Musk was the final speaker before Trump's wife, Melania, took the stage.

Other prominent figures in Trump's orbit are set to be elsewhere Tuesday night, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, who will spend at least the early part of the evening in his home state of Louisiana.

Musk also added Tuesday evening that he’d just voted himself in south Texas, where his company SpaceX has a facility.

The next crop of states have officially closed their respective voting polls: Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and Virginia, among a slew of others.

The remaining states will close in the next few hours. All polling locations are set to close by 11 p.m. ET.

Tue, November 5, 2024 at 11:57 PM UTC

I’m not an election forecaster, but I’ll make a 2024 election call based on polls and my own intuition. Since I’m publishing this for everybody to see, my fans can extol me — or my trolls can berate me — whether I’m right or wrong.

Yes, I could be wrong, and if so I’ll admit it tomorrow (or whenever we know).

Tue, November 5, 2024 at 11:45 PM UTC

While you wait for results, take a break from reloading those ever-changing betting markets and take a look at the stakes.

Yahoo Finance spent the final days of the 2024 campaign examining four key economic decisions that, like it or not, will confront the next president in his or her first two years in office. Here’s more about those issues that will be center stage next year, no matter who wins.

For an even deeper look at all of the financial issues that matter most to your pocketbook, please see Yahoo Finance’s interactive guide to the 2024 election.

Tue, November 5, 2024 at 11:36 PM UTC

Exit polls released by NBC News, Fox News, CNN, and other TV networks on Tuesday afternoon indicate some of the top issues for voters.

via Bloomberg: "Around 35% of voters — including a plurality of both men and women — said democracy was their top issue and 31% said the economy, while 14% picked abortion. Immigration was the top issue for 11% of voters. Abortion was the top issue for 19% of women versus just 8% of men. Only 4% of voters said foreign policy was their biggest concern."

Tue, November 5, 2024 at 11:15 PM UTC

Our job at Yahoo Finance tonight is to track market implications of election developments, not to parse election returns at the county level and draw maps and circles all over wall-sized maps of Pennsylvania and Georgia. But I set up a feed on X, formerly Twitter, with a few experts on election returns, for anybody who wants to go deep into the districts tonight. Anybody can follow that feed for sharp analysis of what early returns are telling us. Just click the link above and follow my list, which I’ve cleverly labeled “Election night.”

I noticed political analyst Louis Jacobson curated an election night list as well. Click that link to follow it. Lou does terrific work as a contributor to PolitiFact and many other outlets. Definitely a good guy to follow, in his own right.

If there’s anything you’d like us to address in this blog tonight, tag us: @YahooFinance, @rickjnewman, @benwerschkul, and @allie_canal. We offer personalized service, when possible!

Tue, November 5, 2024 at 11:02 PM UTC

US stock futures held steady as the first states closed their polls in the wrap-up to Election Day.

Near 6 p.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) climbed about 0.1% while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) also moved roughly 0.1% higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up about 0.2% on the heels of a winning day for stocks.