Warner Bros. Discovery to report earnings amid linear TV declines, loss of key NBA rights

11/07/2024 04:24
Warner Bros. Discovery to report earnings amid linear TV declines, loss of key NBA rights

Warner Bros. Discovery will report third quarter earnings before the bell on Thursday. Here's what to expect.

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) will report third quarter earnings before the bell on Thursday as the media giant struggles with a declining linear TV business, an unfavorable ad market, and the loss of its key NBA media rights.

In the second quarter, WBD took a massive $9.1 billion impairment charge related to its TV networks unit following the loss of those rights. The company is currently tied up in litigation after suing the NBA in July, citing the "unjustified rejection" of its matching rights proposal.

"We expect WBD's 3Q earnings will reflect a continuation of the various headwinds in the business," Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote in a note ahead of the results.

Here's what Wall Street expects for the third quarter, according to Bloomberg estimates:

  • Revenue: $9.81 billion versus $9.98 billion in Q3 2023

  • Adjusted loss per share: -$0.12 versus -$0.17 in Q3 2023

  • Subscriber net additions: 6.1 million versus loss of 700,000 in Q3 2023

The company has struggled in recent quarters, with profits hit by a weak linear advertising environment and pressure on affiliate fees, or the fees pay TV providers pay to network owners to carry their channels.

Network advertising revenue is expected to have dropped another 7% in the third quarter after falling 10% in Q2 and 11% in Q1, according to Bloomberg estimates.

The loss of the NBA rights has further steepened those challenges, with Deutsche Bank projecting a potential hit of $560 million to total affiliate revenue in 2026 as a result.

But a recent carriage renewal deal with Charter Communications, which included WBD's Max streaming service as part of the package, should help stem some of the bleeding.

"If WBD's renewal with CHTR can be replicated in coming deals, we believe it would be a big improvement versus expectations," BofA's Reif Ehrlich said.

Still, it might be a tall order, as Deutsche Bank warned the company's "upcoming batch of renewals in 2025 are with providers that haven't necessarily shown the same proclivity to include streaming products in their video packages," as Charter has demonstrated.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - NOVEMBER 04: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns attempts to save a loose ball during the first half against the Philadelphia 76ers at Footprint Center on November 04, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the 76ers 118-116. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns attempts to save a loose ball during the first half against the Philadelphia 76ers at Footprint Center on Nov. 4, 2024, in Phoenix, Ari. (Chris Coduto/Getty Images) · Chris Coduto via Getty Images

Outside of linear TV, streaming has outperformed for the company, which added nearly 4 million Max subscribers in the second quarter and reported a 98% year-over-year jump in streaming advertising revenue.

And although the streaming division posted a loss of $107 million in Q2, Wall Street analysts have largely shrugged it off, citing several tailwinds through the end of the year and into 2025.

Those include the recent launch of Max in markets outside of the US, including Latin America and Europe. Recent price hikes should offer another level of profitability after the company raised the price of its ad-free plans on Max in June, while increased bundling with competitors should boost subscribers and help prevent churn.

The company also has its upcoming sports streaming partnership with Disney (DIS) and Fox (FOXA), although a judge temporarily blocked the launch, citing antitrust concerns.

Warner Bros. Discovery chief executive David Zaslav poses on the red carpet during the Oscars arrivals at the 96th Academy Awards in Hollywood, Los Angeles, California, U.S., March 10, 2024. REUTERS/Aude Guerrucci

Warner Bros. Discovery chief executive David Zaslav poses on the red carpet during the Oscars arrivals at the 96th Academy Awards in Hollywood, March 10, 2024. (REUTERS/Aude Guerrucci) · REUTERS / Reuters

Overall, it remains an uphill battle for WBD stock, with shares down 30% since the start of the year.

Full-year adjusted EBITDA remains at risk of falling to $9 billion, according to the latest Bloomberg estimates. That's $5 billion below what analysts had expected at the time of its merger.

Rumors have swirled about the company's next move. Bank of America analysts recently laid out possible strategic options that could include a split of the company's digital streaming and studio businesses from its legacy linear TV unit.

Comcast said last week that it's exploring a similar concept and might spin off its cable networks into a separate company in order to "play offense" amid recent industry turmoil.

"This is a public company. We're all very well aware of our responsibility to have a view on whatever strategic options are out there," WBD CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels said during the company's second quarter earnings call in August. "We are very clearly focused on evaluating everything beyond just running the operational business."

In the meantime, the company has committed to aggressive cost cuts, which have helped boost free cash flow. This past summer, the company reportedly laid off about another 1,000 employees across multiple business sectors after it eliminated the positions of around 100 employees at its CNN network.

Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at [email protected].

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