Exit polls showed Harris made significant gains on the economy. But other concerns may have crowded it out.

11/07/2024 16:09
Exit polls showed Harris made significant gains on the economy. But other concerns may have crowded it out.

When exit polls began to be released on Tuesday night, it appeared to contain a nugget that augured well for Kamala Harris. In the end, it didn't.

When exit polls began to be released on Tuesday night, it appeared to contain a nugget that augured well for Kamala Harris. In the end, it didn't.

Americans were asked who they trusted more to handle the economy. It was a win for Donald Trump — 51% picked him to 47% for Harris — but it was a much more narrow victory than would have been imaginable earlier this year when the former president was trouncing President Joe Biden regularly on the issue.

It seemed to be a validation of a strategy for Harris in the final few days of the campaign to focus on economic issues — which are called the top issue for voters so much it can feel like a cliche — and tout her plans to bring down the prices of things like groceries and housing.

But those results clearly augured nothing of the sort. Trump, in the hours that followed, romped to a decisive victory that saw him win crucial battlegrounds as well as be on track to win the popular vote for the first time in his three runs for office.

"I am so proud of the race we ran and the way we ran it," Harris said Wednesday afternoon as she conceded the race. "We must accept the results of this election."

There are many answers to what caused Trump's win and Harris's loss but one clear factor appears to be a recent decline in Americans (especially Democrats this year at least) who say the economy is their top issue.

In 2012, the exit polls found a whopping 60% of all voters picked the economy as their top issue. This year, the result was barely half that with 31%.

In addition to this overall decline in voter focus on the economy, this year's batch of exit poll data found that, for the first time in years, the economy did not rank as the top election day issue. Voters narrowly ranked democracy as their top issue.

The results were even more striking among Harris supporters. The economy was fourth in that group with Democrats also more attuned to abortion and foreign policy, in addition to democracy.

This downplaying of economic issues was also seen in another measure of voter preferences: the AP Votecast, a survey of more than 115,000 voters nationwide.

It also found vastly different motivations among voters with the voters who actually pulled the lever for Harris looking at other issues first.

The survey found democracy appeared to be a primary driver for Vice President Harris’ supporters with Trump’s supporters focused on immigration and inflation.

The economy was the top issue, at 39%, but with many more choices presented and less than 4 in 10 voters answering the economy as top issue — mirroring the exit polls in that respect.

TOPSHOT - US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris takes part in a phone bank at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington, DC, on November 5, 2024 (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

Vice President Kamala Harris called voters at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington on election day. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images) · BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI via Getty Images

And Tuesday night exit poll results found that, while Harris did gain when it came to voters' trust on the economy, it did little to help her with those who consider the economy their topic issue.

That 31% of voters who picked the economy as their top issue broke decisively for Trump, 79% to 20%.

Lee Carter is president of Maslansky + Partners and said Wednesday in a Yahoo Finance appearance that the twin issues of inflation and immigration "sealed the deal" for Trump.

"People feel really really negatively about the economy," she noted.

It was also a question that the Financial Times polled in recent months as it asked about voter perceptions of candidate trust on the economy. Harris was ahead at time but Donald Trump took the lead in the outlet's final poll.

Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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