Why a US Bitcoin 'Strategic Reserve' makes $115K Bitcoin even more likely
11/09/2024 02:01With a Republican election sweep, one of crypto's most bullish analysts is getting even more optimistic.
As the dust settles from one of the most pivotal U.S. elections in recent memory, investors are bracing for what a second Trump term and potential Republican sweep could mean for the crypto market.
But what does this mean for Bitcoin’s price, the broader altcoin market, and investor opportunities? Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Sean Farrell joined Coinage to explain why the election results could mean even his $115,000 year-end price target might not be bullish enough.
The trickiest update to modeling Bitcoin's path could be the challenge of estimating the likelihood of Republicans making good on their promise to establish a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve.
As Farrell put it, “that’s kind of what I’m trying to get my head around right now in terms of what kind of premium I’d put on that.” Should the proposal move forward, it could spark “some kind of game-theoretical outcome among different, you know, sovereign nations,” potentially driving Bitcoin even higher.
The idea of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, which emerged during Trump’s campaign, now feels less like political theater and more like a real possibility. With the Republicans in control of both chambers, a path to enactment could open, adding an extra layer of intrigue. Odds now are "definitely not zero,” Farrell remarked on the likelihood of the proposal gaining traction.
If enacted, Farrell believes it could put a “pretty significant…premium” on his $115,000 target, though he admitted that the proposal introduces questions around “execution” and pricing.
Despite just two months left in 2024, Farrell’s optimistic outlook on Bitcoin hasn’t wavered. He reaffirmed his ambitious target of $115,000, highlighting that favorable macroeconomic conditions could drive Bitcoin to new heights. He pointed to “the macro backdrop” as “very constructive for liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin,” noting factors like the Fed’s dovish stance and China’s economic stimulus as key drivers that create a “pretty good setup” for Bitcoin’s continued growth.
When asked if he was worried that there are just two months left in the year for Bitcoin to advance 51% to hit his price call, he responded cooly. How cooly?
"I'm as cool as a cucumber," Farrell said.