Cardano (ADA) struggled as one of 2024’s worst-performing cryptocurrencies, shedding over 40% of its value year-to-date through October.

However, November brought a swift turnaround, with ADA wiping nearly six months of losses in just one week. Now, it eyes 100%-plus price gains by March 2025.

ADA booms on Hoskinson-Trump rumors

On Nov. 10, Cardano’s price rose by over 20% to return to its April high of $0.597.

The cryptocurrency’s gains are primarily part of a broader crypto market rally following the reelection of pro-crypto US presidential candidate Donald Trump on Nov. 6.

However, its intraday gains appeared majorly due to rumors that Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson could be part of the Trump administration in 2025.

Still, that does not seem to be the case. In his latest YouTube livestream, Hoskinson mentioned that they will be setting up an office to interact with government officials, but he didn’t mention receiving any formal invitation to join a crypto policy department from the upcoming Trump administration.

Related: Charles Hoskinson shares new plans to ‘help foster' US crypto policies

As of Nov. 10, Trump has not officially announced the formation of a dedicated cryptocurrency policy group either, indicating that ADA’s intraday pump was largely due to excessive speculation about a Hoskinson-Trump collaboration.

ADA price may double despite risks

ADA’s price pump has taken its daily relative strength index (RSI) to its most overbought levels since December 2023, suggesting that its market is overheated and due for profit-taking in the coming days.

As of Nov. 10, ADA was testing its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $0.599 as resistance, with a potential pullback raising its likelihood of falling toward the 0.5-0.382 Fib level area—coinciding with the $0.548-0.489 range—by November’s end.

A pullback toward the $0.548-$0.489 range would also represent a retest of the recently breached multi-year descending trendline, as shown in the weekly chart below.

Successful support at this level could confirm the breakout and provide a base for further upside momentum. Should it happen, ADA may test its 0.786 Fib line at around $0.65- as resistance by December.

A breakout above this level will likely send the Cardano price toward the 0.618 Fib line at around $1.139 in the first quarter of 2025. In other words, a 105% price rally in early 2025.

Conversely, failure to hold above the giant descending trendline resistance might signal a false breakout and could lead to a deeper retracement toward the ascending trendline support at around $0.350.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.