Bitcoin's trajectory for 2025 stirred debate as Co-Host of Altcoin Daily, Austin Arnold, joined Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes, to discuss the impact of the recent election and macroeconomic policies on the cryptocurrency market.

Arthur Hayes projected a bold forecast for Bitcoin, stating, “I would say my price tag is between $100,000 to $250,000 by the end of next year,” though he cautioned that Federal Reserve policies could shape outcomes dramatically.

Hayes also predicted Trump's victory could prompt a hawkish pivot from the Fed. Last week, the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. “We may see a liquidity drain if Trump takes office, with the monetary arm going on strike for the 50 or 60 days until inauguration.” This delay, he suggested, could exacerbate volatility, particularly with a debt ceiling negotiation looming at the start of the year.

The Fed's most recent rate cut, however, has further propelled Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency surging to a new all-time high on Monday after spiking to $87,000. Other analysts, including Fundstrat's Sean Farrell had predicted a continually dovish Fed would propel Bitcoin to $115,000 by the end of the year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that he would not step down if pressured to by President Trump. The Fed's next policy decision is in December. Traders are assigning about a 66% chance of another 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool.

Attention now turns to control of the House, which has all but been secured by Republicans. Only a few races remained too close to call as of Monday, with Republicans just shy of the number needed to ensure they would be in the driver's seat to set budgetary policy after Trump takes office.

Hayes concluded that while both parties might ultimately push liquidity, timing and personnel changes under Trump could introduce temporary hurdles, leading to a short-term liquidity strike that could significantly impact bitcoin markets.