Disney earnings: Investors eye streaming progress, parks stabilization as CEO change looms
11/14/2024 03:40Disney will report its fourth quarter earnings before the bell on Thursday. Here's what to expect.
Disney (DIS) is set to report its fiscal fourth quarter earnings before the bell on Thursday as the company aims to extend recent momentum in streaming and also stabilize demand within its parks business after the segment fell short in its most recent quarter.
The earnings also follow a recent report from the Wall Street Journal, which said the pool of candidates that could succeed CEO Bob Iger is expanding as the executive is set to leave Disney for a second time by the end of 2026.
Last month, Disney said it plans to announce its next CEO in early 2026, with current Disney board member and former Morgan Stanley (MS) CEO James Gorman leading the charge. He will serve as the company's new chairman of the board, effective Jan. 2, 2025.
Disney adjusted its reporting structure after CEO Bob Iger reorganized the company last year into three core business segments: Disney Entertainment, which includes its entire media and streaming portfolio; Experiences, which encompasses the parks business; and Sports, which includes ESPN networks and ESPN+.
Thursday's report marks the first time investors will have a chance to digest year-over-year trends for the three core business units in this new arrangement.
Here's how Wall Street expects Disney to perform, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
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Total revenue: $22.47 billion versus $21.24 billion in Q4 2023
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Adj. earnings per share: $1.10 versus $0.82 in Q4 2023
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Entertainment revenue: $10.66 billion versus $9.52 in Q4 2023
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Sports revenue: $3.95 billion versus $3.91 in Q4 2023
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Experiences revenue: $8.20 billion versus $8.16 in Q4 2023
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Disney+ subscriber net additions: 2 million versus 4.1 million in Q4 2023
Streaming profitability should be a bright spot after the company reported its first quarter of streaming profits in August. The segment should also see a boost from recent price hikes, along with the continued rollout of Disney's password-sharing crackdown across its various platforms.
In mid-October, the company hiked the price of its various subscription plans, highlighting a trend that's gained traction over the past year as media companies embrace direct-to-consumer (DTC) offerings in the face of greater linear television declines.
Still, Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich warned that "significant DTC investment will likely curb the pace of profitability ramp in the near term" and could weigh on next year's earnings growth.
The analyst still maintained her Buy rating and $120 a share price target on shares, citing Disney's collection of "best-in-class premiere assets" and upcoming streaming catalysts.
Earlier this year, Disney doubled down on sports streaming with the reveal of an upcoming joint venture partnership with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Fox (FOXA). In August, a judge temporarily blocked the launch of the service, dubbed Venu Sports, citing antitrust concerns. It remains tied up in litigation.
The company is also working on a separate sports streaming platform for ESPN, set to debut in fall 2025.
Meanwhile, the parks business will be closely watched after the business unit disappointed in the company's third quarter results, with domestic operating income dropping 6% from the prior year to $1.35 billion. Disney warned demand moderation could continue over "the next few quarters."
Analysts say visibility will be especially limited this time around due to Hurricane Helene likely affecting US attendance. Internationally, the Paris Olympics and a typhoon in Shanghai are also likely to weigh on overall results.
Disney stock has fallen from its April highs due to these uncertainties, with the stock up 13% so far this year, trailing the benchmark S&P 500's 25% rise over that same time period.
Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at [email protected].
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