How the Trump trade's 'exuberance' could help reopen the IPO window after 2 brutal years
11/14/2024 16:06Experts believe that if the Trump trade continues to drive the stock market rally higher, a flood of IPOs will soon follow suit.
Investors have been waiting for the US IPO market to thaw after two challenging years.
Donald Trump's election win may help do just that.
Since Trump's victory last week, the stocks of investment banking leaders including Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan (JPM), and Jefferies (JEF) have all rallied by 10% or more.
That action, combined with large rallies in a fund like the Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) — a closed fund that buys shares for investors in companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Stripe — shows investors are beginning to bet on an IPO resurgence.
"I certainly expect that there will be increased IPO activity in the US during the next year, barring a big stock market drop," University of Florida Warrington College of Business professor Jay Ritter, who studies IPOs, told Yahoo Finance.
The moves higher, along with the rally across the equity market, has experts believing 2025 could bring the return of the public offering.
After a boom in 2021 that saw more than 1,000 companies go public, IPO volumes fell to 179 in 2022 and just 148 last year as rates rose rapidly. But the IPO market has shown some signs of life more recently. So far this year, 193 IPOs have come to market, the highest total since 2021. Still, this is below the average of 290 per year over the past decade.
In Ritter's view, a pickup in IPO activity would likely have more to do with the stock market rally that followed Trump's win rather than the president-elect's eventual policies, which are expected to feature lower corporate taxes and broader deregulation.
Ritter points to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and the 2012 Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act as prime examples of legislation that could've impacted the IPO market but instead had "pretty minor" effects on the industry.
Instead, Ritter argues, "the much more important issue is what happens to the stock market."
Since Trump won the election on Nov. 6, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up more than 3.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) have both popped over 4%.
Strategists don't think this post-election rally is over yet, either.
Julian Emanuel, who leads the equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy team at Evercore ISI, recently laid out a case for the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by June of 2025, backed by a "public reengaged in speculation."
He added that "exuberance lies ahead" in markets, and that kind of environment usually comes with more public offerings.
"IPOs will be the hallmark of the AI frenzy," Emanuel said.
The equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs led by David Kostin also expects a pickup in the IPO market in the months ahead.
Goldman's team uses its own "IPO Issuance Barometer," which is most heavily influenced by how far the S&P 500 has fallen from its most recent 52-week high. That, combined with other factors such as CEO confidence, the ISM manufacturing index, the change in 2-year Treasury yields, and the S&P 500's valuation, creates a score.
Historically, a reading of 100 on the barometer represents a macro environment consistent with the historical pace of IPOs. With both the S&P 500 index level and valuation multiples currently near all-time highs, the barometer is currently at 137.
"Given the positive macro backdrop, the only sticking point preventing a jump in new issuance activity appears to be the reluctance of private equity and venture capital firms to recognize that the elevated corporate valuations of 2021 are unlikely to return in the foreseeable future," Kostin's team wrote.
But at a certain point, companies looking for an exit for their employees and early investors will have to take what the market gives them.
On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported Swedish fintech Klarna, which saw its value surge to north of $40 billion in 2021 before tumbling below $10 billion a year later, confidentially filed for an IPO.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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