Will Ripple’s record-breaking rally push XRP to new heights, or is this just a temporary surge fueled by regulatory rumors and whale activity?

XRP’s record-breaking rally

Ripple (XRP) is stealing the spotlight this week, making headlines with an extraordinary price rally. As of Nov. 16, XRP has soared past the $1 milestone for the first time since November 2021, currently trading at $1.19. 

This marks a stunning 30% surge in the past 24 hours and an incredible 108% gain over the last seven days, solidifying its position as one of the best-performing crypto since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential elections. 

Speculation about a potential shake-up in U.S. regulatory leadership has added fuel to the excitement. Reports suggest the possibility of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stepping down, sparking hopes of a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto assets. 

Let’s explore the factors driving this rally, unpack the developments surrounding Ripple, and take a closer look at what these movements could mean for XRP’ price in the near future.

Gensler’s exit rumors

The swirling rumors about SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s potential departure have injected a fresh wave of optimism into the crypto market, with Ripple’ XRP emerging as a clear beneficiary. 

While Gensler has not explicitly announced his resignation, his recent speech at the Practising Law Institute’s annual securities regulation conference struck a tone many have interpreted as a possible farewell. 

Describing his tenure at the SEC as “an honor,” Gensler reiterated his stance that most cryptocurrencies, aside from Bitcoin (BTC), fall under the SEC’s regulatory purview.

For Ripple, Gensler’s time at the SEC has been fraught with challenges. Ripple Labs and the SEC have been locked in a legal standoff since December 2020, when the agency accused the company of selling XRP as an unregistered security. 

A partial victory for Ripple came in July 2023, when a court ruled that certain XRP sales did not qualify as securities transactions. However, the SEC’s pursuit of Ripple did not end there.

In August 2024, the battle took another turn. The SEC was ordered to settle for a $125 million civil penalty against Ripple, a mere fraction of the $2 billion it initially sought. 

Despite this apparent setback, the SEC filed an appeal, claiming the district court’s ruling “conflicts with decades of Supreme Court precedent”, suggesting that the regulatory clash is far from over.

Just hours before the SEC’s appeal, crypto asset manager Bitwise filed for the first-ever spot XRP ETF. Yet, given the SEC’ ongoing resistance to Ripple, the likelihood of approval remains uncertain.

Pressure on Gensler and the SEC continues to mount from multiple fronts. Eighteen U.S. states, including Texas, Ohio, and Wyoming, have recently filed a lawsuit against the agency, accusing it of “gross government overreach” in its approach to crypto regulation. 

The lawsuit highlights concerns that the SEC’s enforcement-centric strategies are overstepping federal authority and undermining state jurisdictions, creating unnecessary legal challenges for crypto firms.

Industry groups, such as the Blockchain Association, report that SEC enforcement actions have cost crypto companies an estimated $426 million in litigation since 2021.

Whales bet big on XRP

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has recently stirred the conversation around crypto’s future in the U.S., tying political changes, regulatory uncertainty, and industry dynamics into a hopeful vision for the sector. 

During Cantor’s annual Crypto Conference, Garlinghouse expressed optimism about the U.S. becoming the global “crypto capital” under new political leadership. 

He even hinted that these could be “Gary Gensler’s last days in office,” signaling a hopeful departure from the enforcement-heavy approach that Ripple has been battling for years.

Amid these political maneuvers, another story is unfolding on-chain. XRP whales —crypto jargon for wallets holding at least one million XRP—have been steadily accumulating. 

Data from Santiment reveals that these large holders have added 3.44 billion XRP to their wallets over the past two years. 

Collectively, they now hold 45.61 billion XRP, the largest total since June 2018. This is particularly significant because 2018 was the year XRP hit its all-time high of $3.84.

Such accumulation by whales often signals confidence in the asset’s long-term value. It also coincides with Ripple’s partial legal victory against the SEC earlier this year, which provided a morale boost for the market. 

As Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC shows signs of potentially easing and XRP experiences heightened whale activity, here’s what the data and expert predictions suggest for the coming years.

Ripple Price Prediction 2024

Technical analysts like XForceGlobal are highly bullish on XRP, citing a confirmed breakout in Ripple’s price action. 

According to their analysis, the token has broken through key resistance levels, including the D-wave of its triangle pattern. They estimate a “99.99% chance” of XRP eventually hitting $5, though the timeline remains unclear.

Coincodex, offering a more conservative short-term outlook, predicts XRP’s price could reach approximately $1.13 by Dec. 16.

Meanwhile, DigitalCoinPrice expects the token to trade between $1.03 and $2.50, with an average price of $2.42 by the end of 2024.

Ripple Price Prediction 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, Coincodex projects the token could range between $0.69 and $3.09, with an average price of $1.66. DigitalCoinPrice is more optimistic, forecasting a price range of $2.46 to $2.96, with an average price of $2.80.

Ripple Price Prediction 2030

By 2030, the outlook for XRP becomes highly optimistic. DigitalCoinPrice predicts the token could range between $7.72 and $8.56, with an average price of $8.42. Coincodex offers a more tempered estimate, with XRP trading between $1.23 and $2.88, averaging $1.80.

The road ahead

While forecasts vary widely, factors like Ripple’s expanding use cases, growing interest from whales and institutional players, and the resolution of regulatory challenges could all play critical roles in shaping XRP’s future path.

As always, it’s important to approach these predictions with caution. The crypto market is notoriously volatile, and prices are influenced by a mix of technical, regulatory, and macroeconomic factors. 

Investors should conduct thorough research and avoid investing more than they can afford to lose.