Posted: November 20, 2024

• Top asset managers have varied reactions to the U.S. national BTC reserve. 
• The current market expectation of the reserve was lukewarm, per Polymarket odds. 

The crypto market is watching two key updates from Trump’s transition team: the treasury secretary pick and the creation of a national Bitcoin [BTC] reserve. 

The latter has been deemed a significant price driver for BTC, yet it has elicited mixed views from top asset managers in the sector.

According to VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Mathew Siggel, the firm fully supports the proposal. Siggel stated, 

“VanEck endorses Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.” 

BlackRock’s mixed signals

There have been mixed reports from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. Earlier in the week, reports suggested that the firm supported the Bitcoin reserve proposal.

However, Fox Business’s Eleanor Terret discredited the earlier reports, citing people close sources close to BlackRock. She said, 

“Sources close to BlackRock tell FoxBusiness the big money manager is not endorsing a strategic $BTC reserve despite recent reports that it is.” 

That said, long-time BTC critic Peter Schiff recently claimed that the proposal could affect the U.S. dollar and BTC itself if approved. Part of Schiff’s reaction read, 

“Ultimately, so many dollars would be printed to buy Bitcoin that the U.S. would experience hyperinflation, rendering the dollar completely worthless. Once the dollar is worthless, the U.S. could no longer keep buying Bitcoin.” 

However, Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the BTC reserve proponents, championed selling U.S. gold reserves for Bitcoin. 

The mixed views have made it difficult to gauge whether Trump will eventually create the BTC reserve. In fact, as of press time, Polymarket’s odds of President-elect Trump forming the reserve were below 40%. 

This could mean that a potential reserve wasn’t priced in, according to Blockstream’s Adam Back. Back projected that BTC could hit seven figures (+$1M) if players begin front-running the U.S. reserve. He said, 

“If the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve happens prepare for 7-figure bitcoin this cycle. The market is skeptical on meaningful follow-through for now, so that is not at all priced in.” 

That said, the next few days/weeks could offer more insight into whether President Trump will proceed with the proposal.