On the macro front, this week's focus is the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, along with Friday's payrolls and average hourly earnings report. If the employment component and wage growth exceed expectations, the dollar could get a lift while trimming Fed rate-cut bets. Additionally, there's talk of more easing from China, though the impact of earlier measures has been downplayed. Stay alert!

Crypto:

Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.

Macro

Dec. 2, 10:00 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) <a href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/" target="_blank">releases</a> November’s ISM Manufacturing PMI Report. Est. 47.5 vs Prev. 46.5.

Dec. 2, 3:15 p.m.: Fed governor Christopher J. Waller gives a <a href="https://watch.civl.com/programs/live-from-dc-christopher-waller-federal-reserve" target="_blank">speech</a> ("Economic Outlook") at the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) Monetary Conference, in Washington, D.C.

Dec. 4, 4:00 a.m.: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is set to release its latest <a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/economic-outlook.html" target="_blank">Economic Outlook</a>. Secretary-General Mathias Cormann and Chief Economist Álvaro Pereira present the findings during an <a href="https://oecdtv.webtv-solution.com/82fd95cba31bb793658607a114db81ac/or/hybrid_launch_of_the_oecd_economic_outlook_2024.html" target="_blank">event available online</a>.

Dec. 4, 10:00 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) <a href="https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/" target="_blank">releases</a> its Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for November. Est. 55.5 vs Prev. 56.0.

Dec. 4, 1:45 p.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell takes part in a moderated discussion at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/events/dealbook" target="_blank">The New York Times DealBook Summit</a> in New York City.

Dec. 4, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/beige-book-default.htm" target="_blank">releases</a> the Beige Book, an economic summary used ahead of FOMC meetings.

Dec. 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm" target="_blank">releases</a> the October Employment Report.

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Prev. 12K.

Unemployment Rate Prev. 4.1%.

Token unlocks

Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.44% of circulating supply worth $10.75 million on Dec. 3.

Cardano (ADA) to unlock 0.05% of circulating supply worth $20.18 million on Dec .4.

Jito (JTO) to unlock 102.7% of circulating supply worth $464.1 million on Dec. 7.

Governance votes

SafeDAO opened preliminary discussions on allocating $50,000 toward creating a modular treasury management system. The discussion opened on Dec. 1.

Arbitrum is voting on allocating $20,000 to research user behavior and subsequent development direction. The vote closes Dec. 5.

Dec. 2: <a href="https://ethvenice.com/" target="_blank">ETHVenice 2024</a> (Venice)

Dec. 2 - 3: <a href="https://digiassetsconnect.wbresearch.com/" target="_blank">DigiAssets Connect 2024</a> (Geneva)

Dec. 2 - 3: <a href="https://digitaltransformationkuwait.com/" target="_blank">Digital Transformation Kuwait Conference 2024</a> (Kuwait)

Dec. 2 - 6: <a href="https://tcc.iacr.org/2024/" target="_blank">Theory of Cryptography Conference 2024</a> (Milan)

Dec. 3 - 4: FT’s <a href="https://banking.live.ft.com/" target="_blank">Global Banking Summit</a> (London)

By Oliver Knight

HyperLiquid’s native token, HYPE, hit the market last week to become one of the most profitable airdrops of the year. It tripled in price over the weekend after debuting at a $1 billion market cap. The token is now trading at $8.57 after touching a record high of $9.79.

Unlike many other generic native tokens that offer utility through governance votes, HYPE can be staked to secure HyperBFT, the proof-of-stake consensus algorithm that powers the HyperLiquid exchange. It is also being used as the primary token for paying transaction fees on the network.

True to its ticker, the token garnered notable attention among crypto enthusiasts on X (the so-called Crypto Twitter community) with almost all of the well-known influencers mentioning, recommending and occasionally scrutinizing it.

The bull case for HYPE is in the tokenomics because supply is skewed toward the community as opposed to venture capitalists and early investors. As a result, it is trading more like a meme coin with a viral following without the risk of supply suppression by anyone who bought in a funding round at a cheaper price.

Quant trader Flood, who goes under the X account <a href="https://x.com/ThinkingUSD/status/1862428808084648232" target="_blank">@ThinkingUSD</a>, wrote that they were “adding huge” under $4 on the day of release. Since then trading terminal Insilico <a href="https://x.com/InsilicoTrading/status/1862967518798729443" target="_blank">announced</a> it was strategically accumulating a HYPE reserve, allocating 25% of weekly revenue.

The three-month basis in BTC and ETH futures on offshore exchanges has softened from weekend highs, suggesting a moderation in bullish sentiment.

Perpetual funding rates across the broader market are normalizing, which could pave the way for a more sustained price rally.

In the options market, calls for BTC and ETH are still trading at a premium to puts. However, ETH calls are more expensive than BTC calls, indicating bullish expectations for ether relative to bitcoin.

IBIT and MSTR's high implied volatility has sparked interest in covered call strategies.

BTC is down 2.6% from 4 p.m. ET Friday to $94,939.66 (24hrs: -2%)

ETH is down 0.5% at $3,579.86 (24hrs: -3%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 3.6% to 3,641.28 (24hrs: 6+2.13%)

Ether staking yield is unchanged at 3.07%

BTC funding rate is at 0.017% (18.8% annualized) on Binance

DXY is up 0.4% at 106.2

Gold is down 0.6% at $2,635.20/oz

Silver is up 1.2% to $30.26/oz

Nikkei 225 closed +0.8% at 38,513.02

Hang Seng closed 0.65% at 19,550.29

FTSE is up 0.14% at 8,273.78

Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.20% at 4,813.85

DJIA closed on Friday +0.42% to 44,910.65

S&P 500 closed +0.56% at 6,032.38

Nasdaq closed +0.83% at 19,218.17

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.41% 25,648

S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.58% at 2,328.18

U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.2%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% to 6039.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.21% to 20949

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.12% at 44999

BTC Dominance: 56.78% (-0.04%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.0379 (-0.37%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 744 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $62.14

Total Fees: 20.1 BTC/ $1.9 million

CME Futures Open Interest: 181,105 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 36.2 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 10.32%

Bitcoin sitting in over-the-counter desk balances: 421,809

BTC's dominance rate has slipped below an ascending trendline that tracks its year-to-date rise. The breakdown points to a continued investor preference for altcoins over bitcoin.

MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $387.47 (-0.35%), down 2.17 % at $379.05 in pre-market.

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $296.20 (-4.75%), up 0.22% at $296.84 in pre-market.

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$25.61 (+1.83%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $27.42 (+1.86%), down 1.42% at $27.03 in pre-market.

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.65 (+2.26%), down 1.03% at $12.52 in pre-market.

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.88 (+0.96%), down 1.17% at $17.67 in pre-market.

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $14.35 (+3.54%), up 0.14% at $14.37 in pre-market.

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.14 (+4.18%).

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $57.02 (-6.6%), up 0.63% at $57.38 in pre-market.

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net inflow: $320 million

Cumulative net inflows: $30.67 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.076 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net inflow: $332.9 million

Cumulative net inflows: $576.8 million

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.047 million.

Source:<a href="https://farside.co.uk/" target="_blank"> Farside Investors</a>

The chart shows the 30-day change in the fully diluted market capitalizations of tokens grouped by category.

The store-of-value sector, comprising cryptocurrencies with BTC-like appeal, has seen an industry-beating 262% surge in four weeks.

DeFi, meanwhile, has put in a below-average performance.

<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/02/xrp-replaces-tether-as-3rd-largest-cryptocurrency-while-btc-faces-384-m-sell-wall" target="_blank">XRP Replaces Tether as 3rd-Largest Cryptocurrency While BTC Faces $384M Sell Wall</a> (CoinDesk): XRP has surged 375% in 30 days to $2.40, becoming the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. TikTok trends, speculation on a Ripple stablecoin and ETF hopes are fueling interest. Bitcoin, meantime, faces resistance near $100,000, with a $384 million wall of sell orders.

<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/02/ethers-price-chart-now-mirrors-a-pattern-that-foretold-bitcoins-record-rally" target="_blank">Ether's Price Chart Now Mirrors a Pattern That Foretold Bitcoin's Record Rally</a> (CoinDesk): Ethereum's price chart shows a bullish breakout, ending an eight-month corrective trend and resuming its October 2023 uptrend from $1,500. Similar to Bitcoin's October rally, it may trigger cascading gains. Supporting this are rising network activity and $332.9 million in net inflows to U.S. spot ether ETFs last Friday.

<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/01/ethereum-etfs-see-record-333-m-inflows-outpacing-bitcoin-funds-as-catch-up-trade-gains-momentum" target="_blank">Ethereum ETFs See Record $333M Inflows, Outpacing Bitcoin Funds as Catch-Up Trade Gains Momentum</a> (CoinDesk): Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. saw record inflows Friday, totaling $332.9 million, led by BlackRock and Fidelity funds. Last week, ether outpaced bitcoin in ETF flows and price gains, hitting $3,700. Analysts attribute the resurgence to improving DeFi sentiment, anticipation of regulatory clarity and potential bottoming in the ETH-BTC ratio after three years.

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-01/the-establishment-takeover-of-bitcoin-creates-new-list-of-risks" target="_blank">Establishment’s Takeover of Bitcoin Creates a New List of Risks</a> (Bloomberg): Spot bitcoin ETFs hold over 1 million tokens, or 5% of the supply, rivaling Satoshi Nakamoto's stash. Rising institutional demand, potential U.S. government stockpiles and supply constraints fuel price forecasts of high as $1 million per BTC. However, concentrated ownership and policy risks could create market vulnerabilities despite ongoing price surges.

<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/68814d56-794f-4dc5-85a6-8631ab95b62f" target="_blank">Yen Strengthens Past 150 per Dollar on BoJ Rate Rise Expectations</a> (Financial Times): The yen has strengthened past 150 per dollar after stronger Tokyo inflation data fueled speculation of a December Bank of Japan interest-rate increase. Core CPI rose 2.2% year-on-year, driven by higher rice costs. Despite recent yen declines and $100 billion in interventions, a rapid yen appreciation could deter the bank from raising rates.

<a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/29/russias-central-bank-acknowledges-short-term-impact-on-ruble-exchange-rate-a87177" target="_blank">Russia’s Central Bank Acknowledges ‘Short-Term’ Impact on Ruble Exchange Rate</a> (The Moscow Times): On Friday, Russia’s Central Bank attributed the ruble’s drop to U.S. sanctions on Gazprombank while expressing confidence in its own actions, including halting foreign currency purchases and maintaining a 21% interest rate. Friday’s official rate was 109.57 per dollar and 116.14 per euro, with officials optimistic about currency stabilization.