Bitcoin’s (BTC) journey to a potential $100,000 price point will depend on the balance between short-term holder (STH) demand and long-term holder (LTH) profit-taking, according to the latest edition of the “Bitfinex Alpha” report.
Despite a sharp 8.64% intra-week pullback over the past few days, Bitcoin’s price surged to a record monthly close of $96,506 by the end of November.
The recovery came after Bitcoin dipped to $90,911 on Nov. 26, the largest decline since a pre-election sell-off in October. Despite the brief pullback, November saw Bitcoin gain 37.3%, the second-best monthly performance of the year.
Bitcoin’s strong momentum heading into December is seen as a positive signal. The report forecasted a continuation of the upward trend, particularly given BTC’s historical performance during halving years.
In the past, halving years have seen exceptional price growth, with Bitcoin typically seeing an average increase of 38.86%. However, the report also suggests that December may see heightened volatility, especially as it coincides with the most significant options expiry of the year.
Additionally, recent Bitcoin supply and demand trends suggest that the market could experience a temporary pullback before reaching new highs.
Supply trends
While the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, concerns about a short-term pullback persist. The report highlighted the sustained distribution of Bitcoin from long-term holders (LTHs) as a critical factor influencing price conditions.
Over the past two weeks, LTHs have capitalized on the increased demand by resuming large-scale distribution of their holdings. Since the peak in LTH supply in September, approximately 508,990 BTC has been distributed.
This distribution level, while substantial, is still smaller than the 934,000 BTC sold during the rally leading to the March high of $73,666. Yet, it remains a critical factor in the short-term outlook.
If the demand from short-term holders (STHs) and marginal buyers does not match the supply being offloaded by LTHs, Bitcoin could experience further price volatility and a deeper pullback before continuing its ascent.
STH supply is nearing its cycle high of 3,282,000 BTC, with just over 3.25 million BTC held by short-term buyers. Historically, the final leg of Bitcoin’s bull market is triggered when STH supply surpasses pre-halving cycle highs.
If STH demand can meet or exceed the supply from LTHs, Bitcoin could see continued upward momentum. The Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which tracks the profit margin at which LTHs sell their Bitcoin, currently sits at 2.6.
Notably, market tops have occurred when the SOPR is above 3, indicating a more significant profit-taking phase. The current level suggests that while LTHs are still selling, they have yet to reach the peak of their distribution, leaving room for further upward movement if STH demand remains strong.
Outlook for December
If the market can absorb the supply from LTHs, the path to $100,000 becomes increasingly likely. The report noted that while typically volatile, Bitcoin’s performance in December could remain neutral to positive due to the strong momentum from November, combined with the halving-year effects that often boost Bitcoin’s price.
However, the volatility expected in the latter part of the month — due to options expiring and the potential for profit-taking — could create short-term price fluctuations.
The report cautioned that traders and investors must remain vigilant in the coming weeks, monitoring both the supply trends and the demand from short-term holders to gauge Bitcoin’s next move.
With LTHs continuing to distribute, the key scenario for Bitcoin in the short term is whether enough new demand can enter the market to support the continued upward momentum. If the balance tips favor short-term holders, the $100,000 threshold may not be far off — but until then, volatility will likely remain a fixture in Bitcoin’s price action.